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World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014
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The report is a joint product of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. UN DESA the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNCTAD and. the five United Nations regional commissions Economic Commission for Africa ECA. Economic Commission for Europe ECE Economic Commission for Latin America. and the Caribbean ECLAC Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. ESCAP and Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia ESCWA. For further information see http www un org en development desa policy wesp index shtml or contact. DESA ECLAC, Mr Wu Hongbo Under Secretary General Ms Alicia B rcena Executive Secretary. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Economic Commission for Latin America. Room S 2922 and the Caribbean,United Nations Av Dag Hammarskj ld 3477. New York NY 10017 Vitacura,USA Santiago de Chile,1 212 9635958. wuh un org 56 2 22102000,secepal cepal org,Dr Mukhisa Kituyi Secretary General ESCAP. United Nations Conference on Trade Ms Noeleen Heyzer Executive Secretary. and Development Economic and Social Commission for Asia. Room E 9042 and the Pacific,Palais de Nations 8 14 United Nations Building.
Av de la Paix 1211 Rajadamnern Nok Avenue,Geneva 10 Bangkok 10200. Switzerland Thailand,41 22 9171234,sgo unctad org,66 2 2881234. unescap unescap org, Dr Carlos Lopes Executive Secretary Ms Rima Khalaf Executive Secretary. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. Menelik II Avenue P O Box 11 8575,P O Box 3001 Riad el Solh Square Beirut. Addis Ababa Lebanon,961 1 981301,http www escwa un org main contact asp.
251 11 5511231,ecainfo uneca org,Mr Sven Alkalaj Executive Secretary. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe ISBN 978 92 1 109168 7. Palais des Nations CH 1211 eISBN 978 92 1 054177 0. Geneva 10 United Nations publication,Switzerland Sales No E 14 II C 2. 41 22 9174444,info ece unece org,Copyright United Nations 2014. All rights reserved,Global economic outlook,Prospects for the world economy in 2014 2015. Global growth continues to face headwinds, The world economy has experienced subdued growth for another year in 2013 unable to.
meet even the modest projections many institutional forecasters made earlier including. the World Economic Situation and Prospects WESP 2013 According to the information. available in November world gross product WGP is estimated to have grown by 2 1 per. cent in 2013 lower than the baseline forecast of 2 4 per cent published in WESP 2013 but. still better than the alternative pessimistic scenario presented in that report 1. Underperformance in the world economy was observed across almost all regions The world economy. and major economic groups Most developed economies continued struggling in an uphill underperformed across. almost all regions in 2013, battle against the lingering effects of the financial crisis grappling in particular with the. challenges of taking appropriate fiscal and monetary policy actions A number of emerg. ing economies which had already experienced a notable slowdown in the past two years. encountered new headwinds during 2013 on both international and domestic fronts. Some signs of improvements have shown up more recently the euro area has finally. come out of a protracted recession with gross domestic product GDP for the region as. a whole returning to growth a few large emerging economies including China seem to. have backstopped a further slowdown and are poised to strengthen Premised on a set of. assumptions box I 1 WGP is forecast to grow at a pace of 3 0 and 3 3 per cent for 2014. and 2015 respectively table I 1 figure I 1 Again this baseline forecast is made in the. context of a number of uncertainties and risks emanating from possible policy missteps. and factors beyond the economic domain, Despite the notable differentials in the growth rates among different groups of coun Cyclical movements in. tries cyclical movements in growth remain synchronized figure I 2 While the average growth remain synchronized. growth of middle income countries continues to be the highest growth for the least devel among world economies. oped countries LDCs is expected to strengthen in 2014 2015 box I 2. Among developed countries 2 the United States of America is estimated to grow at Political wrangling over. a meagre pace of 1 6 per cent in 2013 significantly lower than the 2 8 per cent growth budgetary issues lingers. of the previous year Fiscal tightening and a series of political gridlocks over budget in the United States. ary issues during the year have weighed heavily on growth Monetary policy has been. extremely accommodative but it has had greater effect on boosting equity prices than. 1 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 United Nations publication Sales No E 13 II C 2. available from http www un org en development desa policy wesp wesp current wesp2013 pdf. 2 Chapter IV contains more detailed discussion on the economic outlook for different regions and. 4 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014,Growth of world output 2007 2015. Change from WESP,2013 forecastd, Annual percentage change 2007 2010a 2011 2012b 2013c 2014c 2015c 2013 2014. World 1 8 2 8 2 4 2 1 3 0 3 3 0 3 0 2, Developed economies 0 3 1 5 1 3 1 0 1 9 2 4 0 1 0 1.
United States of America 0 3 1 8 2 8 1 6 2 5 3 2 0 1 0 2. Japan 0 0 0 6 1 9 1 9 1 5 1 2 1 3 0 7,European Union 0 2 1 7 0 4 0 1 1 4 1 9 0 7 0 3. EU 15 0 1 1 5 0 5 0 1 1 4 1 8 0 6 0 2,New EU members 2 0 3 0 0 6 0 5 2 1 2 7 1 5 0 8. Euro area 0 2 1 6 0 7 0 5 1 1 1 6 0 8 0 3, Other European countries 1 1 1 6 1 9 1 7 2 6 2 9 0 2 0 7. Other developed countries 1 6 2 4 2 5 2 0 2 6 2 9 0 0 0 4. Economies in transition 2 9 4 6 3 2 2 0 3 3 4 0 1 6 0 9. South Eastern Europe 2 6 1 9 0 9 1 8 2 6 3 1 0 6 0 0. Commonwealth of Independent States and Georgia 2 9 4 8 3 4 2 0 3 4 4 1 1 8 1 0. Russian Federation 2 4 4 3 3 4 1 5 2 9 3 6 2 1 1 3. Developing economies 5 9 5 9 4 7 4 6 5 1 5 3 0 5 0 5. Africa 4 8 0 8 5 7 4 0 4 7 5 0 0 8 0 4,North Africa 4 6 6 1 7 2 2 3 3 3 4 3. East Africa 6 5 6 5 6 0 6 0 6 4 6 4,Central Africa 4 8 3 9 5 8 4 2 4 8 4 1.
West Africa 6 0 6 1 6 7 6 7 6 9 6 8,Nigeria 6 9 6 8 6 5 6 5 6 9 6 7 0 3 0 3. Southern Africa 3 9 4 0 3 5 3 6 4 2 4 4,South Africa 2 6 3 5 2 5 2 7 3 3 3 7 0 4 0 5. East and South Asia 7 6 7 0 5 5 5 6 5 8 6 0 0 4 0 5. East Asia 7 7 7 1 5 9 6 0 6 1 6 1 0 2 0 4,China 10 8 9 3 7 7 7 7 7 5 7 3 0 2 0 5. South Asia 6 9 6 4 4 2 3 9 4 6 5 1 1 1 1 1,India 8 1 7 3 5 1 4 8 5 3 5 7 1 3 1 2. Western Asia 4 0 6 9 3 9 3 6 4 3 3 9 0 3 0 2, Latin America and the Caribbean 3 4 4 4 3 0 2 6 3 6 4 1 1 3 0 8.
South America 4 5 4 6 2 5 3 2 3 4 4 1 0 8 1 0,Brazil 4 6 2 7 0 9 2 5 3 0 4 2 1 5 1 4. Mexico and Central America 1 4 4 1 4 0 1 5 4 0 4 2 2 4 0 6. Mexico 1 2 4 0 3 9 1 2 4 0 4 2 2 6 0 6,Caribbean 3 5 2 7 2 8 2 4 3 3 3 8 1 3 0 5. By level of development, High income countries 0 6 1 7 1 5 1 2 2 1 2 5 0 1 0 1. Upper middle income countries 5 9 5 9 5 1 4 6 5 3 5 4 0 8 0 5. Lower middle income countries 6 1 5 8 4 4 4 7 5 0 5 4 0 8 1 0. Low income countries 6 1 6 2 6 0 5 7 6 1 6 1 0 2 0 2. Least developed countries 6 9 3 6 4 9 5 4 5 7 5 7 0 3 0 2. Memorandum items,World tradee 3 0 6 7 2 9 2 3 4 7 5 2 2 0 0 2. World output growth with PPP based weights 3 0 3 7 3 0 2 9 3 6 4 0 0 4 0 4. Source UN DESA,a Average percentage change,b Actual or most recent estimates.
c Forecast based in part on Project LINK and baseline projections of the UN DESA World Economic Forecasting Model. d See World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 United Nations publication Sales No E 13 II C 2. e Includes goods and services,Chapter I Global economic outlook 5. Figure I 1,Growth of world gross product 2007 2015a. Percentage change,2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015. Source UN DESA,2 a Growth rate for 2013 is,2 1 partially estimated Estimates. for 2014 and 2015 are forecast,Major assumptions for the baseline forecast.
This box summarizes key assumptions underlying the baseline forecast including monetary and fiscal. policies for major economies exchange rates for major currencies international prices of oil and other. primary commodities Policy assumptions for other countries can be found in the text of chapter IV. Monetary policy, The United States Federal Reserve Fed is expected to continue its accommodative stance in the outlook. for 2014 2015 In accordance with the forward monetary policy guidance of the Fed it is assumed that in. the forecasting period of 2014 2015 the federal funds interest rate will remain within the range of 0 0 to. 0 25 per cent until mid 2015 followed by a gradual increase starting in the third quarter of 2015 The ad. justment of long term assets on the Fed balance sheet will be implemented in three phases the Fed will. taper the amount of its purchases beginning in December of 2013 from the current level of 85 billion. per month and gradually reach zero by mid 2014 assets will be held on its balance sheet for the period. until mid 2015 assets will then be unloaded gradually beginning in the third quarter of 2015. The European Central Bank is assumed not to cut its policy interest rates further but to keep policy. rates at the current levels through the end of 2015 followed by a gradual path of increases The outright. monetary transaction programme will remain in place and refinancing operations will continue to meet. the needs of the banking sector, The Bank of Japan BoJ is assumed to continue its Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing. programme as it was originally designed until the end of 2014 The policy rate for BoJ is also assumed to. stay within the range of 0 0 to 0 1 per cent through the end of 2015 to accommodate the second hike of. the consumption tax rate that is assumed to be implemented in October 2015. The People s Bank of China is expected to maintain its prudent monetary policy stance while. making some adjustments to ensure a balance between growth and economic restructuring Interest. rates are likely to remain unchanged over the next few quarters Money supply growth is expected to. moderate slightly in 2014 2015 Meanwhile continued financial reform especially further liberalization. of interest rates and increased regulations in the shadow banking sector will have significant impacts. on the liquidity conditions in the economy on top of conventional monetary policy. 6 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014, Major assumptions for the baseline forecast continued. Fiscal policy, Fiscal policy in the United States is expected to remain restrictive in 2014 2015 but less severe than 2013. The sequestration is assumed to be replaced by an agreement on spending cuts in Medicare Medicaid. and Social Security Emergency unemployment insurance benefits will be phased out gradually Govern. ment spending in real terms will be flat in 2014 2015. In the euro area 12 out of 17 European Monitory Union countries remain under the Excessive Defi. cit Procedure and will continue to pursue consolidation programmes with the crisis countries pursuing. even more stringent consolidation programmes The Economic and Financial Affairs Council granted a. number of countries an extension of the deadline to correct excessive deficits 2014 for the Netherlands. and Poland 2015 for France Portugal and Slovenia and 2016 for Spain They also deemed that Italy has. corrected its excessive deficit Fiscal policy in the region will continue to be focused on reducing fiscal. imbalances The debt crisis countries are assumed to continue their adjustment programmes but the. timetable for achieving targets will in some cases be extended and no countries will ask for formal assis. tance under the European Stability Mechanism, Japan is assumed to increase the consumption tax rate from the current level of 5 per cent to 8 per.
cent in April 2014 An expansionary package of 5 trillion yen will be included in the budget for the 2014. fiscal year The package will consist of lower rates for other taxes and higher outlays for certain expend. iture categories The second increase in the consumption tax rate from 8 per cent to 10 per cent will be. implemented in October 2015, China is expected to maintain a proactive mildly expansionary fiscal policy stance Public spend. ing will continue to increase in the areas of education health care and other forms of social expenditures. The general government budget deficit is expected to rise slightly to 2 0 per cent of gross domestic. product in 2013 and 2014,Exchange rates among major currencies. The dollar to euro exchange rate is forecast to fluctuate around its current level averaging 1 32 dollars. per euro in the rest of 2013 with the dollar appreciating gradually resulting in a full year average of 1 27. dollars per euro in 2014 and 1 21 in 2015, The yen to dollar exchange rate will average 102 5 and 104 5 for 2014 and 2015 respectively. The renminbi to dollar exchange rate is expected to average 6 07 CNY per dollar in 2014 and 6 03. CNY per dollar in 2015 following an estimated 6 15 CNY dollar in 2013. The Brent oil price is expected to be about 108 per barrel for 2014 2015. on stimulating the real economy Expectations arising in mid 2013 about the possible. tapering of the quantitative easing programme caused some jitters in financial markets. pushing up long term interest rates A moderate improvement earlier in 2013 in such. areas as housing and employment lost momentum towards the end of the year In the out. look assuming that the future unwinding of the monetary easing will be smooth GDP. is expected to increase 2 5 and 3 2 per cent for 2014 and 2015 respectively Risks remain. on the downside however particularly because political wrangling over the budget may. linger for several years, Europe has emerged Western Europe emerged from recession in the second quarter of 2013 led by net. from recession exports and to a lesser extent private and public consumption but investment remained. but just barely, weak and unemployment stood elevated GDP is expected to grow by 1 5 and 1 9 per cent.
in 2014 and 2015 respectively Growth remains weak due to a number of factors fiscal. austerity programmes while reduced in intensity remain a drag intraregional demand is. Chapter I Global economic outlook 7,Figure I 2, Growth of per capita GDP by level of development 2000 2015a. 10 Upper middle income,8 Lower middle income,Least developed countries. 4 Low income countries,High income countries, 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015. 2 Source UN DESA,a Growth rate for 2013 is,partially estimated Estimates. 6 for 2014 and 2015 are forecast,Prospects for the least developed countries.
The economies of the least developed countries LDCs will continue to expand at a solid rate with growth. forecast at 5 7 per cent in 2014 and 2015 following growth of 5 4 per cent in 2013 However per capita GDP. is expected to increase at only 3 2 per cent in 2014 and 2015 which in many LDCs will have only a limited. impact on living standards given the widespread levels of poverty Major obstacles for stronger economic. and social development include institutional deficits a lack of infrastructure and political instability. Performance is diverse among individual countries in the LDCs In numerous African LDCs such. as Angola Liberia Sierra Leone the United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia investment in the natural. resource sector will drive growth in 2014 However the challenge lies in achieving a more comprehensive. and lasting impact on development Infrastructure improvements for example should not be tailored. exclusively towards natural resource projects but also towards the broad needs of the population More. over the positive impact on growth from natural resources can prove short lived given their finite nature. and the exposure to volatile global commodity prices Consequently countries face the challenge of using. the proceeds from natural resources to promote other sectors in the economy For example higher val. ue added processing of natural resources should have a positive impact on employment opportunities. Such diversification could also help rebalance the external trade accounts of many LDCs which are run. ning trade deficits as net food and energy importers. Numerous LDCs are still coping with the fallout from past natural catastrophes or remain vulner. able to new ones such as the exposure of harvests to drought risks in the Horn of Africa and the Sahel A. case in point for the accumulation of effects from natural catastrophes is Haiti where economic activity is. expected to have recovered only moderately to 3 5 per cent in 2013 from 2 8 per cent in 2012 This pace of. growth is too slow in the light of the destruction wreaked by hurricane Sandy in 2012 which in turn came. on the heels of the catastrophic earthquake in 2010 Economic growth remains constrained by a weak agri. cultural sector damaged by hurricane Sandy and continuing institutional inefficiencies On a positive note. the industrial sector has improved stimulated by external demand for textiles in particular Although the. Haitian economy is expected to perform relatively better in 2014 driven by higher government spending. in infrastructure a revival in the agricultural sector and stronger private consumption supported by aid in. flows and remittances the country remains extremely vulnerable to natural and external economic shocks. Employment conditions both in the formal and even more so in the informal labour market are a. further challenge in many LDCs In Bangladesh for example a factory building collapse in April 2013 that. killed more than 1 100 workers sparked a debate over employment conditions in the garment industry. triggering a wave of protests This led to the adoption of a new labour law in July 2013 that strengthens. worker rights including the formation of trade unions Awaiting approval by the Ministry of Labour a. proposal has been made to raise the minimum wage for garment industry workers by 77 per cent to 5 300. taka about 67 per month,8 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014. still exceptionally low and extraregional demand has slowed Lending conditions remain. tight for some countries particularly for small and medium sized enterprises SMEs. Considerable diversity is found across countries with the United Kingdom of Great Brit. ain and Northern Ireland showing relatively strong growth followed by Germany while. the crisis countries remain in very weak positions with Cyprus Greece and Portugal. expected to stay in recession in 2014, Many of the new European Union EU members in Eastern Europe remained in a. sustained recession in the first half of 2013 but the situation improved in the second half. of the year with business sentiment and household confidence strengthening in response. to the return to growth in Western Europe For example the automotive industry in. Central Europe showed signs of an upturn and retail sales also increased in the Czech. Republic and Poland The aggregate GDP growth for the region is estimated to be 0 5 per. cent in 2013 and is forecast to strengthen moderately to 2 1 per cent in 2014 and further. to 2 7 per cent in 2015, Japan is estimated to grow by 1 9 per cent in 2013 boosted by a set of expansion. ary policy packages including fiscal stimulus and large scale purchases of assets by the. central bank Fixed investment has been a key driver of growth as a number of public. construction projects have been financed by the supplemental budget The Government. is also expected to introduce another package targeting structural reforms soon but the. effects are not certain Meanwhile the anticipated increase in the consumption tax rate. over the next two years is expected to curb growth GDP is forecast to moderate to 1 5 per. cent in 2014, Regarding other developed countries GDP in Canada is estimated to grow at. 1 6 per cent in 2013 and is expected to grow by 2 4 and 2 8 per cent for 2014 and 2015. respectively Residential construction was a positive contributor to GDP growth in 2013. but the pace of construction is near a maximum GDP in Australia is estimated to grow by. 2 6 per cent in 2013 and is forecast to grow by 2 8 per cent in 2014 While export growth. will remain solid investment in the mining sector is expected to peak in 2014 Growth in. government consumption and public investment will decelerate GDP in New Zealand is. estimated to grow by 2 6 per cent in 2013 and is forecast to grow by 2 8 per cent in 2014. driven by growth of exports to Asian markets, Growth prospects in Africa Among developing countries growth prospects in Africa remain relatively robust.
remain relatively robust After an estimated growth of 4 0 per cent in 2013 GDP is projected to accelerate to 4 7. per cent in 2014 Growth prospects are expected to be supported by improvements in the. global economic and regional business environment relatively high commodity prices. easing infrastructural constraints and increasing trade and investment ties with emerging. economies Other important factors for Africa s medium term growth prospects include. increasing domestic demand especially from a growing class of new consumers associ. ated with urbanization and rising incomes and improvements in economic governance. and management A moderate growth recovery in 2014 in emerging and developing coun. tries led by China and projected improvement in major developed economies should also. stimulate growth in Africa through increased trade investment and capital flows. Growth in Asia stabilized After a notable slowdown in 2011 2012 economic growth in East Asia stabilized at. at a moderate level a moderate level in 2013 The region continues to be adversely affected by relatively weak. external demand from developed economies as well as an adjustment to slower growth. in China The average growth of the region is estimated to average 6 0 per cent in 2013. almost the same pace as 2012 A moderate pickup to 6 1 per cent is forecast for 2014 and. 2015 mainly driven by a gradual recovery in export growth amid improving conditions in. Chapter I Global economic outlook 9, developed countries In most East Asian economies private consumption and investment. will continue to expand at a solid pace supported by stable labour market conditions low. inflation and fairly accommodative monetary policies Fiscal policies will remain moder. ately expansionary and continue to provide support for growth. Growth in South Asia remains lacklustre as a combination of internal and external. factors hamper activity particularly in the region s largest economies such as India the. Islamic Republic of Iran and Pakistan Growth is estimated to be 3 9 per cent in 2013. nearly the slowest pace in two decades Growth is forecast to pick up moderately to 4 6. per cent in 2014 and 5 1 per cent in 2015 supported by a gradual recovery in domestic. demand in India an end to the recession in the Islamic Republic of Iran and an upturn in. external demand However in most economies growth will likely remain well below the. level prior to the global financial crisis Private consumption and investment are held back. by a wide range of factors including energy and transport constraints volatile security. conditions and macroeconomic imbalances, Western Asia is estimated to grow by 3 6 per cent in 2013 and will accelerate to 4 3. per cent in 2014 While the member countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council GCC. have been on a stable recovery path continuing political instability social unrest security. incidents and geopolitical tensions have hampered a number of other economies in the. region The Syrian crisis has been impacting the neighbouring countries in a multifacet. ed way The subdued cross border economic activities including trade investment and. tourism between GCC countries and the rest of Western Asia continued to fail to bring. intraregional positive spillover effects The stagnation of private capital inflows put Jordan. Lebanon and Yemen under moderate foreign exchange constraints Turkey continued to. face financial pressures with its currency depreciating and interbank interest rates rising. as a result of the decline in international capital inflows. Growth in Latin America and the Caribbean decelerated in 2013 to a pace of 2 6 Growth in Latin America. per cent but is forecast to improve to 3 6 and 4 1 per cent in 2014 and 2015 respective and the Caribbean is forecast. to pick up slightly, ly In South America Brazil is still growing at a subdued pace curbed by weak exter. nal demand volatility in international capital flows and tightening monetary policy The. expected improvement in the outlook will depend on strengthening global demand Pri. vate consumption has been supportive of growth in many South American economies. Growth in Mexico and Central America is expected to accelerate in 2014 2015 supported. by better performance of manufacturing exports and stable domestic demand as well as. structural adjustment Growth in the Caribbean has been hampered by weak external. demand for the tourism sector in particular and weaker commodity prices but is. expected to strengthen in the outlook, Among economies in transition growth in most economies of the Commonwealth CIS is constrained by. of Independent States CIS decelerated in 2013 curbed by weak exports and external structural problems. financing constraints supply side bottlenecks and weak consumer and business confi. dence Growth in the Russian Federation weakened further in the first half of 2013 as. industrial output remained weak and investment became a drag on growth The economic. slowdown eventually affected previously resilient consumer confidence and led to weaken. ing retail sales growth The weakness in the Russian Federation has had a negative impact. on its neighbours in the CIS through trade investment and remittance channels In the. outlook structural problems such as sluggish energy sector expansion capacity constraints. and weak investment will prevent an acceleration of growth to pre crisis levels. Growth in South Eastern Europe has improved in 2013 but growth is expected to. remain marginal in the near term fluctuating between 1 and 2 per cent which is insuffi. 10 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014, cient to address the region s long standing needs for reindustrialization increased labour.
force participation and reduction of excessively high unemployment rates In the outlook. the external environment for those countries is expected to improve including the terms. of access to external finance With easing credit conditions investment is set to recover. gradually in 2014 2015 along with strengthening private consumption GDP growth is. projected to accelerate to 2 6 per cent in 2014 and 3 1 per cent in 2015. Inflation outlook remains benign, Inflation remains tame Inflation remains tame worldwide partly reflecting output gaps high unemployment. worldwide and a continued financial deleveraging in major developed economies Among developed. economies inflation decelerated in the United States during 2013 and is expected to re. main below 2 per cent in 2014 and 2015 Inflation has similarly decelerated in the euro. area but has dipped below 1 0 per cent which has raised some deflationary concerns In. Japan the large expansionary policies aiming to reflate the economy managed to end the. decade long deflation in 2013 as the consumer price index CPI is estimated to increase. by 0 3 per cent and is forecast to hit the target of 2 0 per cent in 2014. Among developing countries and economies in transition inflation rates are above. 10 per cent in only about a dozen economies scattered throughout different regions Sev. eral economies in South Asia and Africa plus a few in the CIS will continue to face high. inflation rates mainly owing to elevated inflationary expectations rapid credit growth. localized food price pressures and structural bottlenecks such as energy shortages On the. other hand most economies in East Asia continue to face benign inflation. High unemployment remains a key challenge, Long lasting effects from the The global employment situation remains challenging as long lasting effects from the. financial crisis continue to financial crisis continue to weigh on labour markets in many countries and regions How. weigh on labour markets, much of the unemployment is structural and how much is cyclical is still under debate. The answer appears to differ by region with some countries such as the United States. facing mainly cyclical unemployment whereas others such as Spain face more struc. tural issues 3, Among developed countries the unemployment rate in the United States has contin. ued its slow decline down to 7 0 per cent in late 2013 from a peak of 10 per cent in 2010. figure I 3 A significant portion of this decline however is owing to a retreat in labour. force participation The unemployment rate is expected to decline further and reach the. United States Federal Reserve s Fed critical threshold of 6 5 per cent sometime in mid. 2015 Unemployment in the euro area appears to have stabilized during 2013 at the his. torical high of 12 2 per cent In the euro area while the unemployment rate in Germany is. near historical lows of about 5 per cent Greece and Spain are facing extraordinarily high. unemployment rates of about 27 per cent with the youth unemployment at twice this. rate These high rates in the euro area are expected to come down only slightly as GDP. growth will not be strong enough to make significant progress over the forecast period. 3 Estimates for Spain s structural unemployment rate are somewhat controversial as they also tend to be. procyclical meaning they will overestimate the rate during times of already high unemployment. but they are still below the current unemployment rate with room for improvement. Chapter I Global economic outlook 11,Figure I 3, Unemployment rates in selected countries January 2007 September 2013.
Percentage of labour force,25 United States,Source EUROSTAT and. the United States Bureau,of Labor Statistics, Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul. 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013. In addition there will be lasting damage to the labour market from discouraged workers. who have been unemployed for significant periods of time The unemployment rate in. Japan is relatively low while the labour force participation rate continues to decline as the. working age population shrinks, The unemployment situation is mixed across developing countries and economies. in transition with extremely high structural unemployment in North Africa and Western. Asia particularly among youth, The unemployment rates remain low across much of East Asia estimated at below. 3 per cent in Malaysia Singapore Thailand and Viet Nam In the outlook period lit. tle change is expected based on the comparatively modest growth forecast for the com. ing two years Slowing growth in South Asia appears to have had a considerable adverse. impact on employment Reported unemployment still remains relatively low in India but. has deteriorated somewhat over the past fiscal year In some of these economies changes in. employment due to structural issues have affected women to a greater degree aggravating. already significant gender gaps with high female unemployment rates in Pakistan and low. female participation in Bangladesh Modest growth in the outlook period combined with. population pressures is likely to exacerbate pressures on the labour market Positive growth. in many African countries has had a limited impact on employment the informal sector is. still large and opportunities remain limited for many of those seeking to enter the labour. market as manifested in high youth unemployment rates and wide gender disparities in. earnings In addition continual pressure on labour markets from a steady stream of new. entrants has meant that even solid GDP growth rates have not been sufficient to make. measurable impacts Even as growth slowed down in major economies in South America. 12 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014, such as Brazil and Mexico unemployment remained at about 6 per cent or below Labour.
market indicators are likely to remain solid over the remainder of the year for the region. however there may be no further improvement in the near future despite improvements. in growth due to the fact that unemployment growth is barely equal to the growth of the. labour force for a number of countries The unemployment rate remains at historical lows. in the Russian Federation between 5 and 6 per cent despite a noticeable slowdown and. in migration from surrounding countries in the CIS. More concerted efforts are A number of countries are making concerted efforts at addressing labour market. needed to address labour issues such as aligning macroeconomic policies appropriately with domestic conditions. market issues, promoting training for youth and other excluded segments of the labour force and taking. steps to induce advances in productivity and innovation 4 The expectation is that these. measures will be enacted through a coordinated and integrated policy framework that. will balance labour demand and labour supply with sufficient efforts to ensure sustainable. social protection This also includes promoting an environment that is conducive to job. creation with access to finance necessary infrastructure and support for SMEs Further. steps to activate labour through skills training and upgrading will be necessary to integrate. those groups that have been excluded or that have been forced to subsist through intermit. tent and vulnerable employment,Trends in international finance and trade. Capital inflows to emerging economies declining, Net private capital inflows to emerging markets 5 a subgroup of developing countries and. the economies in transition have shown a measurable decline during 2013 At the same. time volatility in the financial markets of emerging economies has increased significantly. featuring equity market sell offs and sharp depreciations of local currencies both partly. triggered by the Fed announcement that it might taper the amount of its monthly pur. chases of long term assets later in the year Waning growth prospects for emerging econo. mies have also played a role in triggering the decline of capital inflows. QE is having a significant The unconventional monetary policies or so called quantitative easing QE adopt. influence on the net ed by major central banks in the aftermath of the global financial crisis have had a signif. capital inflows to emerging, icant influence on the net capital inflows to emerging economies The QE programmes. injected substantial liquidity into global financial markets and at the same time repressed. long term interest rates in developed countries As a result in a search for higher yields. a significant amount of capital flows was driven to markets of primary commodities and. markets of equities and bonds in emerging economies in the period 2009 2012 However. in late 2012 and early 2013 as systemic risks associated with the sovereign debt crisis in the. euro area abated and the prospects for economic recovery in the United States and Japan. 4 See the G20 Labour and Employment and Finance Ministers Communiqu Moscow 19 July 2013. available from http www g20 org documents p3, 5 Data and definition of private capital inflows in this section are based on Institute of International.
Finance Capital flows to emerging market economies IIF Research Note 7 October 2013 while. the forecasts for 2014 are revised based on Project LINK baseline forecasts The data differ from those. presented in chapter III which cover all developing and transition economies and apply the net net. flows concept which is net inflows less net outflows The use of net inflows would focus on the. effects of volatility in foreign capital inflows while the use of net net flows focuses on the effects of. balance of payment,Chapter I Global economic outlook 13. improved international capital flows started to move away from emerging markets back to. developed markets particularly developed equity markets More recently on the expecta. tion that major central banks will taper their purchases of long term assets and eventually. sell their assets back to the markets international investors have ratcheted up the repricing. of assets and rebalancing of portfolios This has led to the latest wave of declines in capital. inflows to emerging economies Given the prodigious size of the assets accumulated by. major central banks through QE in the past few years and the challenges for determining. the timing and magnitude for unwinding these assets more volatile movements of capital. inflows to emerging economies are expected to occur in the next few years. Among emerging economies declines and volatility in capital inflows have been. most pronounced in Asia While growth in foreign direct investment FDI inflows to. China seems to have resumed some strength recently portfolio equity inflows to India. and Korea and non bank credit flows to Indonesia have registered significant falls Latin. America has also seen a notable retrenchment of inflows mostly in portfolio equities In. contrast Africa Western Asia and emerging European countries continue to see increases. in capital inflows For example in the past year Nigeria has registered significant increases. in capital inflows to both its equity and bond markets Egypt has however witnessed. sharp declines in net private capital inflows due to continued political instability. External financing costs for developing countries and transition economies have also External financing costs. risen in the second half of 2013 triggered by the anticipation of QE tapering The spreads for developing countries. are rising, between yields on sovereign bonds issued by emerging economies and the benchmark. yields on government bonds of major developed countries surged by more than 100 basis. points in the two weeks immediately following the Fed s announcement in May 2013. of the possibility for reducing the size of its QE purchases figure I 4 By taking into. Figure I 4, Daily yield spreads on emerging market bonds January 2007 to 14 November 2013. Percentage,10 Latin America,0 Source JPMorgan Chase. Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul. 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013. 14 World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014, account that the benchmark yields on government bonds in major developed countries.
also increased by about 100 basis points the costs of external financing for emerging. economies in terms of the yields actually increased 200 basis points on average Among. emerging economies the spreads for Latin America are wider than others. Outward capital flows from emerging economies have continued to increase In. addition to a continued increase in official foreign reserves which are counted as part. of outward capital flows and stood at about 7 5 trillion by mid 2013 for emerging and. developing countries as a whole private outward capital flows of emerging economies have. increased in the past few years at a robust pace reaching an estimated amount of about. 1000 billion in 2013 almost to the same level as the net capital inflows to these countries. Among emerging economies China has significantly increased its outward direct invest. ment in recent years supported by more encouraging government policies promoting its. enterprises to walk abroad After registering a total of 88 billion in outward direct. investment in 2012 available data have indicated another increase of about 20 per cent in. 2013 Many economies in Latin America such as Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico and. Peru have also increased outward capital flows mostly in the form of portfolio invest. ments reflecting the need by companies banks and pension funds in Latin America to. internationally diversify their assets, ODA to developing Official development assistance ODA flows to developing countries contracted in. countries has contracted the past two years falling cumulatively 2 per cent in 2011 and 2012 down to 126 4 bil. in the past two years, lion 6 Of the 25 Development Assistance Committee DAC members 16 decreased their. ODA mainly owing to fiscal austerity measures Preliminary data show that bilateral aid. from DAC donors to sub Saharan Africa fell for the first time since 2007 with assistance. totalling 26 2 billion in 2012 a decline of 7 9 per cent in real terms Aid to landlocked. developing countries LLDCs and small island developing States SIDS also fell In. 2012 the combined DAC donors ODA was equivalent to 0 29 per cent of their combined. gross national income GNI far from the United Nations target of 0 7 per cent ODA. flows in 2013 are estimated to remain at the same level as in 2012 Slight increases are. expected for 2014 2015 as more DAC members see improvement in their economies and. fiscal situations A strengthening of political commitment in the international communi. ty spurred by the United Nations campaign for accelerating progress in the Millennium. Development Goals MDGs is also expected to support increases. Currencies of developing countries under depreciation pressures. Foreign exchange markets experienced two distinctive episodes during 2013 the early. part of the year was highlighted by a dramatic depreciation of the Japanese yen and in. May June a number of emerging and developing countries saw the sharp devaluation of. their currencies In the outlook for 2014 2015 major uncertainties and volatility in foreign. exchange markets will still be associated with the currencies of emerging economies. Among major currencies the yen devalued significantly vis vis the United. States dollar from 80 yen per dollar by the end of 2012 to about 100 yen per dollar in. March 2013 partly reflecting a set of drastically expansionary policies adopted by the. 6 For more detailed information and analysis see MDG Gap Task Force Report 2013 The Global Part. nership for Development The Challenge We Face United Nations publication Sales No E 13 I 5. available from http www un org en development desa policy mdg gap mdg gap2013 mdg re. port 2013 en pdf,Chapter I Global economic outlook 15. new Japanese Administration The yen has since stabilized within a small range of about. 98 yen per dollar The euro to dollar exchange rate saw some fairly wide swings between. 1 28 and 1 34 but with no clear direction during the first half of 2013 and followed by a. period of appreciation in the third quarter reaching 1 38 before dropping to 1 34 during. November Changes in relative risk perceptions were an important driving force For the. last few years these have been evenly balanced between eruptions of the euro area debt cri. sis and United States fiscal impasses As the year progressed however risks stemming from. the European debt crisis subsided significantly while those in the United States remained. in play In addition the euro area current account surplus began to widen notably but. stronger growth in the United States provided some counterbalance Going forward how. ever the shifting balance of monetary policies is expected to play an important role The. European Central Bank ECB cut its policy rates in November the second time in 2013. leading to a sharp drop in the euro In terms of unconventional policies the United States. is expected to taper its QE programme soon while the ECB is still entertaining new forms. of stimulus The balance of expected policies in the three areas coupled with the stronger. growth outlook in the United States leads to an expectation of the dollar appreciating. moderately against both the yen and the euro, Currencies in many developing countries and economies in transition have depreci Currencies in many. ated vis vis the United States dollar and other major currencies in 2013 Currencies in developing countries have. depreciated, a number of emerging economies depreciated by the greatest amount in May June 2013.
particularly in Brazil India Indonesia South Africa and Turkey figure I 6 at the same. time that capital inflows to these economies declined In contrast the renminbi of China. continued to appreciate gradually against the United States dollar and other major cur. rencies The difference between the trends in the exchange rates of China and other large. emerging economies can be accounted for by a number of factors including much larger. foreign reserves a less open capital account higher domestic savings and more concen. tration of FDI in the capital inflows to China when compared with the other emerging. Figure I 5, Exchange rates among major currencies January 2007 to 14 November 2013. Index 2 January 2002 100a,Swiss franc,Source JPMorgan Chase. 120 indexed by UN DESA,a Higher value of index,100 indicates appreciation of the. relevant currency vis vis the,80 United States dollar. Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul. 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013.

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