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Welcome to Issue 5 of On Course Profits this month it s all about the Grand National. but we ve also got a system for the early flat season with some trainers who start things. off with a bang or more importantly start things off with a level stakes profit. This Flat Season Flyer is our guest article this month and comes from Simon Patton of. Simon Patton Racing, The system from our in house team this month looks at race trends to identify the. winner of the Crabbies Grand National which this year runs on Saturday 11th April. We have nominated the likely qualifiers from the method in the article but once the 48. hour declarations are out we will send an alert to your phone or tablet with the. confirmed selections watch out for that, As well as our product reviews and tipster tables we also have the story of how a gang. managed to manipulate the prices from the race track to get themselves a 9 000 1. winner over 100 s of slips, And we have details of how we can use free bets and enhanced place terms from. bookmakers to bag ourselves a tasty little risk free profit from the National. I hope you enjoy this month s issue, All the best, Darren Power. Click for Free Tips, Flat Season Flyer, With Cheltenham now either a very distant or lasting memory many people are now.
starting to turn their attention to the forthcoming flat season This article looks at a. system that should help you get off to a flying start in April and May. The main focus of the system is the trainers who in recent years 2012 14 have. consistently got off to a quick start and have delivered a combination of good strike. rates and strong profit and loss performance, The reason we are only looking at the last 3 years is because the trends in horse racing. are constantly changing with the betting markets quickly catching up with positive. angles so we need to ensure that any systems we develop are reflecting this and are. progressive, All the data shown is taken from the excellent Horse Race Base web site. So first of all let s look at the trainers that have delivered a strike rate of around 20 or. higher minimum of 25 qualifying races, As you will see from the chart there are 4 trainers who have delivered a strike rate of. 20 I have also included R Beckett as whilst the strike rate is only just over 18 he. has delivered this over a significant amount of races and is achieving a very strong P L. performance, I then went on to analyse any other consistent trends that correlate across this group of. trainers Firstly I looked at race type, You will see that all the three race types above are producing a positive P L.
performance however my personal preference is to maintain an overall strike rate of. circa 20 so as a result of this I will only be including Maiden and Handicap races. within the system, The next criteria I looked at was the horse s age. When looking at the combination of both strike rate and P L we can see that the. strongest performance clearly comes from the horses aged 3 to 5. I then went on to look at a number of other criteria including going class and best. position in the last 3 runs but none of these gave any further significant improvements. Based on the system criteria so far of, Month April and May. Trainers R Beckett P Charalambous A King S Kittow J Mackie. Race Type Handicaps and Maidens, Horses Age 3 to 5. The results for the system can be seen in the chart below. In summary from April 2012 to March 2015 the system has produced 292 selections. average of 48 per month with 61 winners at a strike rate of 20 8 The P L profit to. 1pt level stakes is 169pts at SP and 237pts at BSP. Many people may choose to use this system as it is above but for those that want to be. more selective there was one final piece of criteria that I looked at As we know many. trainers have both preferences and a stronger performance at specific courses so let s. take a look at this data, If we continue to work on the same strike rate principle and include only courses which. have a strike rate of 20 and over with a positive P L we add the following courses to. the system, Ascot Bath Chepstow Epsom Goodwood Leicester Pontefract Ripon Warwick.
and Newmarket, The final system performance including the courses is as follows. In summary from April 2012 to March 2015 the system has produced 85 selections. average of 14 per month with 29 winners at a strike rate of 34 1 The P L profit to. 1pt level stakes is 87pts at SP and 113pts at BSP, I mentioned at the start of the article that it is very important to develop systems that are. progressive with improving performance If we take a look at the final chart below we. can see that this system is improving year on year in respect to both strike rate and P L. performance, The choice as to whether you use the system with the courses included or not depends. on your own betting style and the number of bets you like to place on a weekly monthly. basis Either way this system should be a helpful addition to your betting armoury to. kick start the flat season, Simon Patton, www simonpattonracing com. Advertisement, Simon Patton Racing was launched in November 2014 and my flagship service Patton.
Racing Profits has been running since the 18th April 2014. Since launch it has delivered 500pts profit a strike rate of 27 and an ROI of 36. with only one losing month The aim of the service is to deliver consistent steady profits. so there is only ever a maximum of 3 selections a day. Get Your Free Trend is Our Friend 7 Day Trial here. My second service Trend is Our Friend which is based on a portfolio of Micro. Systems launched in March 2014 and is currently 400pts after its first year delivering. an ROI of 22, You can currently get this on a FREE 7 day trial. Get Your Free Trend is Our Friend 7 Day Trial here. Aintree A method in the madness, No sooner is the Cheltenham Festival over this year and we are waiting with. anticipation for the Crabbie s Grand National Festival at Aintree. The Festival kicks off on Thursday 9th April and runs until Saturday 11th April with the. final day giving us the Crabbie s Grand National Over the three days of the Festival. this year there will be twenty two races and it is estimated more than 150 000 race goers. will attend over the three days, The Grand National itself is likely to be watched by an estimated 600 million viewers. throughout the world It attracts punters who would normally not even bat an eyelid at a. horse race but for some reason the Grand National grabs many a non gambler and sees. them look to put a pin in the newspaper or pick a horse from a hat in the office. sweepstake when they would otherwise not even notice that there was a race meeting. going on Needless to say the race rakes in millions for the bookmakers. If you speak to most people about the Grand National they see it as a lottery and feel. that any horse has a chance of winning the race interesting given that the first recorded. winner of the race back in 1839 was called Lottery. Of course all horses are in with a chance but some may be in with a greater chance than. This feature race is considered by many to be the most eagerly awaited steeplechase of. the racing calendar It is a testing race with 40 runners battling the tough Aintree course. for not one but two circuits, The race is 4 miles 3 furlongs and 110 yards long with sixteen of the most testing. fences in the world 16 fences are jumped on the first circuit of the 2 and mile course. and 14 of these are jumped again on the second circuit the exceptions being The Chair. and the Water Jump It is the ultimate test for both horse and jockey With the. modification though the fences are considered to be much kinder than previously and. now class has a much bigger part to play than pure chance alone. Around 150 tonnes of spruce branches are brought in from the Lake District to dress the. jump fences with each fence originally having being made of a wooden frame and. covered with the distinct green spruce Since 2013 the frame has been replaced with a. softer more forgiving material referred to as plastic birch in the interest of safety for. both the horses and the jockey s There is still concern as every jockey and their mount. vie to get a good position and a clear view of that first fence At Aintree a front running. horse is not all bad if it has true stamina as a clear view of the fences can be paramount. in not being brought down, The flat course means that the race more often than not is run at a break neck pace and.
as a jockey you hope for a good and natural jumper to carry you around unscathed. Without a doubt every horse has a chance of winning a race like the Grand National but. there are a number of ways we can look to try and find the winner The most common. way is by looking at a horses past form and comparing this against other runners in the. race but there is also another approach we can adopt race profiling. Race profiling looks back at historical statistics which have been accrued by the past. successful winners to provide a picture of certain characteristics which are useful for a. horse to have if it is to have an enhanced chance of winning. The profiles themselves can be created and adjusted depending on how significantly we. feel the trait should be considered and based on the data available to the profiler. The past has thrown up a number of interesting statistical trends regarding weight age. official rating and number of days since their last run and previous Aintree form which. may help us to eliminate a large number of the field before they even lift the starting. Profiling doesn t necessarily give us the winner but it can give us a shortlist of potential. winning candidates, Valuable races such as The National are seen as the best for profiling as they have a. tendency to regularly be won by horses which show a particular set of characteristics. Let s take a look at the winners for the last ten years. First up a little snippet of famous history no horse other than Red Rum in 1973 and. 1974 has ever won back to back Grand National s and although it would be great to see. Dr Newland an amateur trainer win again statistics suggest that this is unlikely. Neither the winning trainers nor the winning jockeys can shed much light on a possible. winner trend or pattern given the last ten years data though the pairing of W P Mullins. and Ruby Walsh at the time of writing make us think they may be ones to look out for at. Aintree given their first day successes at the Cheltenham Festival. Distance The 4 mile plus course is a genuine test of stamina Generally speaking any. horse which has not won over three miles or further can be discounted immediately so. we can draw a line through those who haven t been the distance The last horse to win. the Grand National having NOT won over three miles previously was Gay Trip back in. Course Experience Previous experience over the fences at Aintree is a definite. advantage Seven of the last ten winners had already had a trip over the fences so it. would pay to take notice of those horses that have had a previous run at Aintree If they. have been successful we can assume that they are not intimidated by the size of the. fences If a horse fell or unseated its rider last time out it may pay to take them out of. the equation as these fences are something else and are not for the faint heated. Form Class All the winners from the past ten years have had an Official Rating of. 137 or greater and don t be put off if they have had a run within the past month to six. weeks Many of the winners had actually had a run within the previous month Also all. but Ballabriggs and Pineau De Re had previously won a Class 1 Class A race. Weight In the last 20 years only one winner has carried more than 11 6 around the. course and distance, Every additional pound of weight counts particularly if the going comes up on the soft. to heavy side and zapping stamina, Six of the last ten winners and fifteen of the last twenty winners have carried 11 stone or. Age Every winner in the last 10 years has been 9 years of age or older Experience. and maturity count Based on historic records we can dismiss all horses aged 6 and 7 as. we need to go back more than 70 years to find a winner in this age bracket Statistically. in the past horses aged 11 years or older had not been successful either but the last three. years have bucked that trend winning at prices of 33 1 66 1 and 25 1 So keep in mind. horses aged 9 years and over Only 3 horses in the last thirty years have won the race. aged 8 Bindaree Party Politics and Corbiere, Breeding Mon Mome in 2009 was the first French bred horse in more than a century. to win the Grand National and yet again another historical trend is broken in recent. years In the last six years Mon Mome Neptune Collonges and Pineu de Re have all. been French bred This may be due to the fact that in more recent years there has been. an increase in French bloodstock in the yards of the likes of Mullins and Nicholls to. name a few It may well be that we see more French bred horses in the future so we. shouldn t discount them completely, Price The Market Interestingly in the last 10 years five of the last 10 winners have.
been priced at 25 1 or greater admittedly Mon Mome was exceptionally priced at. 100 1 but don t be put off by a healthy price We are looking at 40 horses and jockeys. horse to have if it is to have an enhanced chance of winning The profiles themselves can be created and adjusted depending on how significantly we feel the trait should be considered and based on the data available to the profiler The past has thrown up a number of interesting statistical trends regarding weight age

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