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Sustainable Cities and Society
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M Z Jacobson et al Sustainable Cities and Society 42 2018 22 37. wind water and sunlight WWS Electri cation will lower energy consumption data in each energy sector of each U S state EIA 2015. demand Electricity heat and cold will be stored and electricity will be Canada Statistics Canada 2014 and Mexico IEA 2015 End use. transmitted both short and long distances All WWS generating tech energy is de ned as total all purpose primary energy minus energy lost. nology and most all devices machines and appliances needed currently during generation transmission and distribution of electricity End use. exist Reaching a goal of 100 WWS will eliminate the maximum energy includes energy for mining transporting and re ning fossil. possible energy related air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions in fuels and uranium which is accounted for in the industry sector. each town and city Electricity system losses which are the di erence between primary and. This work builds upon prior 100 WWS all sector roadmaps for the end use energy include the waste heat during nuclear reaction and the. world as a whole e g Jacobson and Delucchi 2011 Delucchi and burning of fossil fuels to produce electricity but not the waste heat due. Jacobson 2011 the 50 U S states Jacobson et al 2015a and 139 to the burning of fossil fuels for transportation industrial heat or home. individual countries Jacobson et al 2017 as well as studies that heat In 2015 such electrical losses in the U S accounted for 25 8 of. suggest the grid can stay stable with 100 WWS Jacobson et al all U S primary energy EIA 2015 End use energy accounted for the. 2015b 2018a These studies uniformly conclude that the main barriers remaining 74 2 of primary energy End use retail electricity was. to transitioning are social and political rather than technical or eco 17 8 of all end use energy whereas end use retail electricity plus. nomic Some of these studies also discuss why technologies such as electricity system losses were 39 of total primary energy EIA. nuclear power fossil fuels with carbon capture and biofuels and bio 2015 Here we transition end use energy In a 100 WWS world end. mass are not included in the roadmaps namely because they have use energy is converted entirely to electricity lowering end use demand. higher catastrophic risk carbon emissions or air pollution emissions signi cantly compared with the BAU case. than WWS technologies Jacobson et al 2011 2017 One exception Contemporary energy use is projected in each sector to 2050 from. could be the capture of methane from waste and its use in a fuel cell the 2015 data for the U S and Mexico and from 2014 data for. but not for combustion since that increases air pollution Although Canadian provinces in a BAU scenario Table 1 with the projections. this technology is neither treated here nor necessary for low cost en calculated as in Jacobson et al 2015a 2017 For the U S such pro. ergy it should help to reduce carbon emissions that would otherwise jections use data from EIA 2017a Future BAU estimates account for. occur from leaks higher demand some transition from coal to natural gas biofuels. Independent studies have also concluded that the electric grid can bioenergy and WWS and modest end use energy e ciency improve. remain stable with 100 or near 100 renewable energy e g Lund ments. and Mathiesen 2009 Mason et al 2010 Hart and Jacobson 2011 After all energy consuming processes in each sector are electri ed. 2012 Connolly et al 2011 2014 2016 Connolly and Mathiesen 2014 for each town and city the resulting end use energy required for a fully. Mathiesen et al 2011 2012 2015 Elliston et al 2012 2013 2014 electri ed all purpose energy infrastructure is estimated Table 1. Rasmussen et al 2012 Steinke et al 2013 Budischak et al 2013 Some end use electricity is used to produce hydrogen for long distance. Becker et al 2014 Child and Breyer 2016 Bogdanov and Breyer ground ship and air transportation Additional modest end use energy. 2016 Aghahosseini et al 2016 Blakers et al 2017 Barbosa et al e ciency improvements are then assumed Finally the resulting power. 2017 Lu et al 2017 Gulagi et al 2017a 2017b 2017c The com demand is supplied with a combination of WWS technologies limited by. prehensive reviews by Brown et al 2018 and Diesendorf and Elliston available natural WWS resources and the rooftop land and water areas. 2018 address point by point criticisms and concerns of such systems of the state or province in which each town or city is located Although. The rst stage in this analysis is to estimate 2050 annually averaged towns and cities are part of a larger interconnected grid the numbers of. power demand in a Business as Usual BAU case from contemporary WWS generators needed to power the annual average end use energy. demand for the 53 towns and cities before any energy sector has been are calculated here as if each town or city is isolated The cost of ad. electri ed All energy sectors are then electri ed and some additional ditional generators and storage needed to keep the larger grid stable is. energy e ciency improvements beyond BAU are assumed An example then estimated. set of clean renewable generators that can satisfy the resulting annual For electricity generation this study assumes that only onshore and. average demand WWS case in each town or city is then provided o shore wind turbines rooftop and utility scale solar photovoltaics. Finally the resulting energy costs air pollution damage costs climate PV concentrated solar power CSP plants tidal and wave devices. costs and job creation loss numbers for the WWS versus BAU systems geothermal electricity and heat plants and hydropower plants col. are estimated lectively called WWS technologies will be used in the future With. This study speci es mixes of WWS technologies that can satisfy respect to hydropower zero new reservoirs are assumed. annual average energy demand To match demand with supply on Under the plans all future devices machines and appliances will. shorter timescales seconds minutes hours etc energy systems need run directly or indirectly on WWS electricity or heat Battery electric. additional features including load shifting large scale grid inter vehicles BEVs and BEV hydrogen fuel cell hybrids where the hy. connections and energy storage Previously we found low cost drogen is produced by electrolysis will constitute all forms of trans. methods for balancing total energy supply and demand at all timescales portation BEVs will make up short and long distance light duty. among the 48 contiguous U S states Jacobson et al 2015b and in 20 ground transportation construction machines agricultural equipment. world regions including North America and Central America Jacobson short and moderate distance trains except where powered by electric. et al 2018a Because the towns and cities in this study are all within rails or overhead wires ferries speedboats short distance ships and. one of the regions examined in the previous studies we believe that it is short haul aircraft traveling under 1500 km Battery electric hydrogen. possible for the grid to remain stable if towns and cities examined here fuel cell hybrids will make up all long distance heavy payload trans. transition to 100 WWS Although this paper does not provide new portation by road rail water and air These technologies are all. grid balancing calculations it does include the costs of storage and commercially available except for electric and hybrid electric hy. transmission needed for grid balancing based on Jacobson et al drogen fuel cell aircraft and ships which are still being developed. 2018a However companies are currently working on all electric vertical take. o and landing replacements for helicopters Zart 2018 all electric. 2 Projections of 2050 BAU and WWS Demand commercial aircraft for short haul ights e g Ampaire 2018 Wright. Electric 2018 and hydrogen fuel cell electric hybrid aircraft for all. The rst step in this study is to quantify 2050 BAU and WWS end distance travel e g HY4 2018 We expect that all commercial short. use loads and the resulting numbers of WWS generators in each town haul ights will be electric by no later than the early 2030 s Knapp and. and city This calculation starts with contemporary end use energy Said 2018 Wright Electric 2018 and long haul ights will be. M Z Jacobson et al Sustainable Cities and Society 42 2018 22 37. BAU and WWS end use energy use by sector and town or city First line of each town or city estimated 2050 total annually averaged end use load GW and percent. of the total load by sector if conventional fossil fuel nuclear and biofuel use continue from today to 2050 under a BAU trajectory Second line of each town or city. estimated 2050 total end use load GW and percent of total load by sector if 100 of BAU end use all purpose delivered load in 2050 is instead provided by WWS. The last four columns show the percent reductions in total 2050 BAU load due to switching from BAU to WWS including the e ects of a energy use reduction due to. the higher work to energy ratio of electricity over combustion b eliminating energy use for the upstream mining transporting and or re ning of coal oil gas. biofuels bioenergy and uranium and c policy driven increases in end use e ciency and demand reduction beyond those in the BAU case. Town or city Scen ario 2050 Resid ential Com mercial Indus trial Trans port a b c Overall. Total percent of per cent of per cent of per cent of Percent Percent change in end Percent change in percent. end use total end total end use total end total end change in end use load w WWS due to end use load w change in. load use load load use load use load use load w eliminating energy in WWS due to end use load. GW WWS due to mining transporting e ciency beyond with WWS. higher work re ning BAU,energy ratio,Abita Springs BAU 0 090 4 2 3 0 77 4 15 4. WWS 0 027 11 1 8 8 66 9 13 2 13 7 42 2 14 5 70 4,Arlington VA BAU 1 610 17 9 19 6 23 9 38 7. WWS 0 847 25 3 32 3 20 7 21 6 31 1 11 2 5 1 47 4,Aspen CO BAU 0 055 19 1 13 0 32 2 35 7. WWS 0 030 28 2 22 7 31 5 17 6 28 4 13 2 4 0 45 6,Atlanta GA BAU 20 887 17 1 14 0 32 2 36 7. WWS 9 875 26 7 25 9 24 6 22 9 30 4 17 7 4 6 52 7,Boone NC BAU 0 111 18 6 18 5 26 0 37 0.
WWS 0 058 28 3 30 4 20 4 20 9 28 9 12 8 6 0 47 7,Boston MA BAU 9 714 22 2 22 9 14 6 40 3. WWS 5 632 29 5 33 3 17 2 19 9 32 3 7 7 2 0 42 0,Bu alo NY BAU 1 232 22 1 28 8 12 5 36 6. WWS 0 651 29 1 44 2 9 3 17 4 22 6 9 4 15 1 47 2,Burlington VT BAU 0 262 20 2 22 0 18 1 39 6. WWS 0 145 30 8 32 4 16 9 19 9 29 4 10 9 4 2 44 6,Calgary CAN BAU 6 763 8 3 5 7 66 1 19 9. WWS 3 705 10 7 10 2 70 2 8 8 26 0 17 9 1 4 45 2,Chicago IL BAU 20 890 18 0 14 6 35 2 32 1.
WWS 9 513 25 4 28 1 28 2 18 3 24 4 18 0 12 1 54 5,Cleveland OH BAU 3 021 17 5 14 4 37 5 30 7. WWS 1 450 24 5 26 0 32 8 16 7 24 7 16 3 11 0 52 0,Columbia MD BAU 0 619 22 7 24 1 10 9 42 2. WWS 0 330 29 5 39 2 8 4 22 9 29 7 6 9 10 1 46 7,Denton TX BAU 5 437 19 1 13 0 32 2 35 7. WWS 2 955 28 2 22 7 31 5 17 6 28 4 13 2 4 0 45 6,Denver CO BAU 3 953 22 7 24 1 10 9 42 2. WWS 2 107 29 5 39 2 8 4 22 9 29 7 6 9 10 1 46 7,Des Moines IA BAU 0 558 10 9 10 0 57 6 21 5.
WWS 0 220 19 8 20 1 45 6 14 5 28 2 33 5 1 1 60 6,Detroit MI BAU 4 643 21 1 16 9 29 9 32 1. WWS 2 276 27 5 30 3 25 1 17 1 26 1 14 0 10 9 51 0,East Hampton BAU 0 105 22 1 28 8 12 5 36 6. WWS 0 055 29 1 44 2 9 3 17 4 22 6 9 4 15 1 47 2,Georgetown TX BAU 1 010 7 7 6 4 59 9 26 1. WWS 0 334 17 7 16 7 45 5 20 1 17 4 34 0 15 6 67 0,Grand Rapids BAU 1 347 21 1 16 9 29 9 32 1. WWS 0 660 27 5 30 3 25 1 17 1 26 1 14 0 10 9 51 0,Greensburg KS BAU 0 008 14 8 12 1 42 6 30 5.
WWS 0 003 25 4 23 3 32 3 19 0 22 4 23 3 12 0 57 6,Hanover NH BAU 0 062 19 3 19 6 17 8 43 2. WWS 0 034 29 6 28 8 19 4 22 2 34 7 9 5 1 4 45 6,Honolulu HI BAU 5 279 4 3 12 9 21 3 61 5. WWS 2 279 12 3 27 5 15 8 44 4 43 2 14 0 0 3 56 8,Houston TX BAU 37 462 7 7 6 4 59 9 26 1. WWS 12 370 17 7 16 7 45 5 20 1 17 4 34 0 15 6 67 0. Lancaster NH BAU 0 900 10 7 15 4 28 8 45 1,WWS 0 458 19 6 27 5 25 2 27 7 36 8 11 9 0 4 49 1. Los Angeles CA BAU 22 093 10 7 15 4 28 8 45 1,WWS 11 239 19 6 27 5 25 2 27 7 36 8 11 9 0 4 49 1.
Madison WI BAU 1 872 16 8 15 2 38 5 29 5,WWS 0 879 24 0 28 2 31 6 16 2 25 5 18 0 9 4 53 0. Mexico City BAU 16 830 10 2 10 2 42 6 37 0,WWS 7 325 17 6 18 9 41 9 21 5 25 6 11 9 19 0 56 5. Miami FL BAU 2 236 17 6 18 5 16 2 47 6,WWS 1 152 30 9 31 4 10 4 27 3 33 1 10 0 5 4 48 5. Milwaukee WI BAU 4 512 16 8 15 2 38 5 29 5,WWS 2 120 24 0 28 2 31 6 16 2 25 5 18 0 9 4 53 0. Moab UT BAU 0 042 16 0 13 6 29 1 41 3,continued on next page.
M Z Jacobson et al Sustainable Cities and Society 42 2018 22 37. Table 1 continued, Town or city Scen ario 2050 Resid ential Com mercial Indus trial Trans port a b c Overall. Total percent of per cent of per cent of per cent of Percent Percent change in end Percent change in percent. end use total end total end use total end total end change in end use load w WWS due to end use load w change in. load use load load use load use load use load w eliminating energy in WWS due to end use load. GW WWS due to mining transporting e ciency beyond with WWS. higher work re ning BAU,energy ratio,WWS 0 021 25 3 25 7 27 6 21 4 28 0 15 8 5 4 49 1. Montreal CAN BAU 9 104 14 4 12 2 43 9 29 5,WWS 5 353 24 4 16 7 46 1 12 8 22 3 12 1 6 8 41 2. Nassau NY BAU 0 023 22 1 28 8 12 5 36 6,WWS 0 012 29 1 44 2 9 3 17 4 22 6 9 4 15 1 47 2. New Orleans LA BAU 47 854 4 2 3 0 77 4 15 4,WWS 14 158 11 1 8 8 66 9 1.
world regions including North America and Central America Jacobson et al 2018a Because the towns and cities in this study are all within one of the regions examined in the previous studies we believe that it is possible for the grid to remain stable if towns and cities examined here transition to 100 WWS Although this paper does not

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