Preparing For A Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape-Books Pdf

Preparing for a Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape
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Since 2008 it has been apparent that the, petrochemical supply landscape will be changing. worldwide as feedstocks and technologies, evolve and we are certainly seeing that. happening today, The supply landscape is changing on several fronts starting with. North America The use of unconventional technologies to develop. shale resources is increasing gas availability and reducing gas. prices significantly in this region In addition the shift of North. American refineries to more paraffinic crudes is causing aromatics. to be more expensive, Meanwhile the commercialization of coal to olefins CTO and. methanol to olefins MTO technologies in China is adding a. new olefin supply source And in the Middle East we are seeing. limits to future gas supplies as well as a push toward refinery. based chemicals, These factors will affect each petrochemical chain differently This.
paper explores some of the changes taking place in the ethylene. the largest volume olefin and aromatics arenas but there will be. an impact on methanol propylene ammonia and other chemicals. as well This means that across the board petrochemical companies. will need to think about adopting new business models for this. shifting supply landscape, 2 Preparing for a Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape. Ethylene oversupply, With the rapid increase in A key concern for companies building these Looking at China there is considerable. plants is the potential global oversupply unease over the country tapping its large. unconventional hydrocarbons of ethylene According to our analysis coal reserves to produce low cost ethylene. production e g shale oil and the demand for final ethylene products is using CTO MTO technologies China has. expected to grow at about two percent low cost brown coal in its inland regions. gas North America has a, per year in North America perhaps more but the cost of rail transport to the coast is. surplus of natural gas giving if the trend toward North American re prohibitive making the price of coal attractive. the region a significant cost industrialization continues but still far to local users 2 Reports suggest that 60. below the 64 percent increase in capacity 1 to 100 of these types of plants have been. advantage in ethylene production Therefore there is likely to be significant announced for inland regions Only a few. steam cracking There are at North American oversupply with net derivative will go forward with about 700 thousand. least four new crackers in the ethylene equivalent exports expected to be metric tons per year kmtpy of capacity. in the eight million metric tons mmt range expected to be running this year Perhaps. advanced stages of planning by 2023 The nature of most of this derivative another 10 plants averaging less than 300. in the region Another 11 or so capacity has not yet been announced but kmtpy each are likely to be completed in. good candidates are polyethylene polyvinyl the following few years. are under evaluation and at chloride ethylene glycol and other easily. least nine are under study for transported products However there are potential obstacles to. or in the process of being these projects including. expanded If all the new Water supply The CTO MTO processes. are water intensive and China s coal, capacity comes online that resources tend to be in arid regions of. would bring a 64 percent the country, increase in North American Environmental issues These plants can.
produce significant carbon dioxide emissions, capacity by 2023. an area which the Chinese government, stated it is committed to reducing. Scale The Chinese government is only, encouraging the approval of large scale. plants but most announcements are, for plants under 500 kmtpy in size less. than one half the size of a large scale, naphtha cracker.
Capital These plants are capital intensive, and obtaining financing can be difficult. as China slows money supply growth, Logistics costs Plants would be located. in northern and western China far from, major derivative consuming locations. Perhaps the greatest issue is that the Figure 1 Years of coal reserves based on existing production. development of such new plants in China, may not continue past the next decade This. is because China s coal reserve position may Asia Pacific 53. be short lived Even though China has one, South Korea 60.
of the world s largest coal reserves it is also, consuming coal rapidly It is now estimated Japan 275. to be a meager 33 years substantially below, the worldwide average or the average for. any large region of the world see Figure 1 China 33. Australia 184, If all the likely ethylene expansions around. the world come to fruition by 2023 the Middle East Africa 126. global supply will still be short by about, Europe Eurasia 242. 32 mmt based on expected global final, derivative demand South Central America 124.
North America 228, Furthermore even if all the announced less. likely North American cracker expansions, Source BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2012. including the ones that do not seem likely, are completed the additional 11 mmtpy. of ethylene that would result would still, not be sufficient to cover growing world. demand Taking this a step further if all the, China CTO MTO projects with only some.
chance of approval succeeded they would Figure 2 Ethylene surplus deficit by 2023 based on final ethylene use and. add only an extra 3 mmtpy of capacity and planned production. China s ethylene equivalent deficit would, not be overcome see Figure 2 and end note. Beyond infrastructure itself there is another, factor that may affect supply the war for. talent As many as 50 000 skilled petro Effect if all expansions. chemical construction craft workers may occur in North America. be needed in the US Gulf Coast region alone 8 EU NE Asia. in the 2014 2015 timeframe 3 If companies excl Total. cannot find enough talent or manage scarce China World. talent more effectively this shortage may 2 North, America EE. impair production Africa, 12 America, Altogether then it seems that today s. concerns about oversupply in the next Other, decade may well be unfounded And it 22 Asia.
appears that incremental supply to meet range, Asia s growing needs will continue to come. from the Middle East and increasingly 32, Effect if all most likely CTO. North America MTO plants occur in China, Source Accenture Research ICIS Consulting. 4 Preparing for a Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape. Will aromatics be left behind, Aromatics benzene toluene and North America is producing greater Strong population growth high. amounts of lighter more paraffinic crude unemployment and the Arab regional. xylenes which are ultimately oil which yields less aromatics in refining civil unrest are motivating Middle East. used in products such as foam Before the increased production of governments to search for new avenues. insulation polyester and textiles unconventional oil US refiners used of employment growth beyond oil. naphtha primarily from crude distillation production such as downstream. are sourced primarily from by with about 40 percent naphthene and manufacturing and especially petro. product streams in liquids steam aromatics both destined for aromatics chemicals. during the reforming process This, cracking typically naphtha gas decreased to 35 percent with the shift Middle East countries have changed their.
oil or other refinery sourced to a lighter crude slate 6 petrochemical focus away from gas and. feeds and refinery catalytic Low natural gas prices also have had a towards liquids building large scale refineries. negative impact on reformer economics with associated chemicals complexes Saudi. reforming The Middle East and Arabia Oman Abu Dhabi and Kuwait for. because 12 to 16 percent of the volume, Asia are expected to play larger of reformer co product hydrogen ethane example have been pursuing projects along. these lines Liquids based production is not, roles in aromatics production propane butane credits are typically. based on natural gas prices This can have as advantaged as gas based chemicals in the. with North America experiencing a negative impact on aromatics supply Middle East because crude oil and naphtha. countervailing forces on supply depending on the relative prices of naphtha can be shipped inexpensively and World Trade. feed and gasoline Organization WTO standards discourage. North American aromatics production is uncompetitive feedstock discounts However. being negatively affected by a number of Refinery adjustments to the new supply advantages are likely to come from scale. factors which have resulted in reductions of landscape are still evolving This means that new hardware technology and gas based. more than 20 percent of production 4 North American refiners may adopt new olefins linkages in downstream chemicals. hardware and operating variables that In this environment non ethylene base. As natural gas prices have declined in chemicals are likely to rise from a 42. could change the availability of aromatics, North America relative to crude oil percent share of Middle East base chemical. going forward, ethylene operators have emphasized capacity in 2013 to a 46 percent share by. gas cracking rather than liquids cracking 2023 These facilities are well positioned to. The Middle East presents a different picture, Gas cracking produces far less in aromatics serve the Asian market see Figure 3.
Here there are significant aromatics and, streams Aromatics from this source have. propylene supply opportunities The region s, been reduced by more than 50 percent. feedstock situation is changing due to, since the drop in natural gas prices began. several factors, Natural gas has become less available. since 2006 2007, Ethane prices are expected to rise from.
0 75 per million BTUs MMBtu to, possibly the 1 to 2 MMBtu range. 6 Preparing for a Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape. Figure 3 Middle East capacity development Ethylene vs other base petrochemicals. 70 Aromatics propylene butadiene, Source Accenture Research ICIS Consulting. Uncertainties in the new, supply landscape, There are many uncertainties that have and gas production With enough of this Coal prices. the potential to alter significantly the development globally there may be down. Coal competes most directly with natural, scenarios described above These include ward pressure on oil prices Depending on. gas and low natural gas prices have, how low prices go this could affect gas.
brought coal prices down and increased, A possible substantial decline cracking and CTO MTO economics as well. coal availability in North America Coal, in crude oil prices as make the internal Middle East feedstock. can be cost effectively shipped overseas, percentage based discounts less competitive. More hydrocarbon resources are being and low coal prices may make CTO MTO. developed and interchanged For example technology viable in other regions as well. on a global basis power plants are fueled, China s shale resources and even in the US if clean technology. by liquids natural gas coal and other China is believed to have considerable shale is economical. materials and a long term lower price in gas resources but the current industry. any of them would encourage fuel switching consensus is that these will not have a A possible decline in world. and in turn pressure to lower prices on meaningful impact for at least another decade economic growth. the competing fuels Furthermore US crude However that could change if China. This could be driven by a further downshift, production rose to 7 5 million barrels per implements a more open foreign investment.
in China s economic growth continued, day in July 2013 the highest level since regime which could result in increased. growth in government debt and burdensome, 1991 and it is expected to keep rising 7 production in the near term. tax regulatory policies, Mexico is also showing signs of allowing. foreign investment to help increase oil, 8 Preparing for a Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape. A shrinking and connected planet, It is clear that North America On the brighter side China s raw material.
needs are shifting to more value added, will be exporting olefin derivatives grades of polymers and North American. to Asia In the past export producers are well positioned technologically. markets represented a low to supply these Commodity grades also will. still be needed, price alternative to North, American domestic markets Finally the expansion of the Panama. and North American producers Canal scheduled for completion in 2015. exported opportunistically will translate to shorter transit times and. inventory costs and likely lower freight, Now domestic market share rates for US Gulf Coast products going to. battles are likely to occur and Asia further encouraging the marketing of. those companies that offer the US gas based chemicals overseas. most innovative value added, products at cost effective prices. will be the domestic market, winners with the remainder.
being exporters 8, New business models required, As world scale capacity comes Strategic sales and marketing approaches In Europe a constant vigilance on. These will need to be supported by developing innovative products services. online exporting producers customer relationship management and business processes to be the supplier. 4 Preparing for a Changing Petrochemical Supply Landscape Perhaps the greatest issue is that the development of such new plants in China may not continue past the next decade This is because China s coal reserve position may be short lived Even though China has one of the world s largest coal reserves it is also consuming coal rapidly It is now estimated to be a meager 33 years

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