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Table of Contents,Political Factors 3,Historical preview 3. RulingParty 3,Latest EU Report 3,Foreign Relations 4. Foreign Investors Incentives 4,Trade Partners 5,Economics Factors 5. Economic Growth 5,Inflation 6,Current Account Balance 7. Interest Rates 7,Employment Growth Income and Wages 9.
Economic Ratings 11,Banking System 11,Social Factors 12. Demographics 12,Households 13,Technological Factors 14. IT Sector 14,Research Development 14,PEST Analysis of Romania Page 2 of 15. September 2008,Political Factors, Romania is an independent parliamentary republic with judicial executive and legislative branches of. government The president serves as Romania s chief of state The Prime Minister serves as the. head of the government and is appointed by the president with the consent of the Parliament The. seat of the government is in the capital of the country Bucharest 1 2. According to the reputable Ducroire Delcredere agency for risk assessment Romania has low. political risk,Historical preview, In Romania the fall of the communist regime was marked by the execution of the emblematic leader.
of the communist party Nicolae Ceausescu on the Christmas Day of 1989 Ion Iliescu a former. communist took over the power in the country and was elected as a president It was not until 1996. when the communist era ended in reality in the country and a centre right government came into. power However the new leaders Emil Constantinescu as a president and Victor Ciorbea as a prime. minister failed to implement their economic reforms which led to the re election of Ion Iliescu in 2000. Another failure of a successful execution of key economic and social reforms meant that the country. was not put on the list of the countries to join the EU in 2004 In March 2004 at the end of Iliescu s. mandate Romania was admitted to NATO Despite all the hardships in April 2005 Bucharest signed. the European Union accession treaty and since January 2007 the country has been an official. member of the EU 4 5,Ruling Party, The Romanian political life can be best characterized as unstable The high level of division between. the political parties often results in unsteady coalition governments that spend most of their ruling. time and energy trying to ensure their own survival The current centre right ruling government is not. an exception Justice and Truth Alliance is a coalition between the National Liberal Party PNL of. Prime Minister Tariceanu the Democratic Party PD of President Basescu and two smaller parties. the Conservative Party CP and the Hungarian Democratic Union in Romania UDMR In April 2007. Basescu s PD party was excluded from the coalition which made the new government a minority. one made up of the PNL and the Hungarian Democratic Union The main opposition of the current. government is the party of the Social Democrats 6 The expectations for the upcoming general. elections in 2008 are for a bitter campaign which is likely to end with the formation of a new alliance. between the leading parties 7,Latest EU Report, On July 23 2008 the European Commission issued its second post accession annual report on. Bulgaria and Romania on the subject of judicial and anti corruption reforms According to the report. Romania has largely achieved improvements on the matter and thus only received a warning relating. to particular areas No decisive measures such as the activation of the safeguard clause or retention. http romania suite101 com article cfm romania government profile. http news bbc co uk 2 hi europe country profiles 1057466 stm. http www fita org countries romania html, http news bbc co uk 2 hi europe country profiles 1057466 stm. http news bbc co uk 2 hi europe country profiles 1058027 stm. http www edc ca english docs gromania e pdf, http www businessmonitor com businessforecasts romania html. http www oxan com display aspx ItemID DB144215,PEST Analysis of Romania Page 3 of 15.
September 2008, of European funds were enforced while Bulgaria suffered a harsh penalty of around EUR 500. The overall conclusion of the report is that Romania s performance represents a mixed picture. Despite the fact that some progress is acknowledged the predominant tone of the document is. negative 10 According to the EU specialists the two major problems are corruption and the still fragile. legal and institutional framework 1112 The report recommends that Romania significantly enhances the. combat against high level corruption focusing on case delays due to minor excuses Specific cases. are pointed out in the document and the parliament is harshly condemned for delaying corruption. inquiries involving the former Prime Minister Adrian Nastase and other top officials 13. Victor Alistar Executive Director of Transparency International Romania says that new anti. corruption reform must be designed on a purely technical basis and backed by strong political will in. order for Romania to fulfill all the benchmarks set at the time of accession. Foreign Relations, Since the fall of communist regime in 1989 Romania has pursued a policy of strengthening its. relations with the other European countries and the United States. Romania is a member of more than 60 international and regional organizations It joined the. International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in 1972 The country is part of the European Union. since January 1 2007 and an active member in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization NATO since. 2004 World Trade Organisations WTO United Nations UN World Health Organization WHO. and UNESCO are other international organizations in which Romania is a member. Romania is an active member in regional organizations as well The country is part of the Southeast. Europe Cooperation Initiative SECI and the Stability Pact for Southeast Europe Romania also is a. founding member of the Black Sea Consortium for Economic Development and has been a positive. force in supporting stability and cooperation in the area. Furthermore Romania has good relations with the Middle East Israel in particular The Balkan. country was an active participant in the negotiations after the Gulf conflict in 1991. Foreign Investors Incentives, Since the fall of the communist regime Romania has been gradually liberalizing its trade regulations. and incentives and now follows the guidelines set by the EU The ruling government is constantly. updating the laws and financial conditions for doing business in Romania in order to maintain the. positive growth of the economy On June 27 2008 the Romanian Government approved the latest. investment law the aim of which is to provide an umbrella framework in which processes of. application and allocation of state aids will be made more consistent and transparent. Other business incentives that the country offers are no limits of foreign participation in commercial. companies a foreign investor may establish a 100 owned enterprise in Romania full repatriation. of capital and profits and equal treatment of residents and non residents investors 17. http www state gov r pa ei bgn 3211 htm,http www state gov r pa ei bgn 3211 htm. http kosmopolit wordpress com 2008 07 23 latest monitoring report on romania definitely not the last. http the8thcircle com 2008 07 23 eu report on romania and bulgaria. http www balkaninsight com en main news 12024, http kosmopolit wordpress com 2008 07 23 latest monitoring report on romania definitely not the last.
http www state gov r pa ei bgn 35722 htm, http www romanianewswatch com 2008 07 romania boosting investor confidence html. http www riooilandgas2008 com economy 20highlights htm. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 4 of 15,September 2008. The corporate income tax rate and personal income tax rate for 2008 are flat at 16 The standard. VAT rate is 19 There is also a reduced VAT rate of 9. Trade Partners, The two main trade partners of Romania in both import and export terms are Italy and Germany. Imports from the EU weight 70 of overall imports The value of imports in the first three months of. 2008 reached 12 9 billion euros an increase of 12 compared to the same quarter of 2007 The top. five partner countries are Germany 16 8 Italy 11 6 Hungary 6 7 Russia 6 4 and. France 6 3, The value of exports in the first three months of 2008 got close to EUR 8 billion an increase of 14. compared to the first quarter of 2007 Exports to the EU weight 71 of overall exports The top five. partner countries are Germany 16 5 Italy 16 3 Turkey 7 9 France 7 7 and Hungary. Economics Factors,Economic Growth, Driven by the EU accession Romania has shown a strong and stable economic growth The country.
has managed to overcome the building up of economic tensions in the second part of 2007 and in. the first quarter of 2008 recorded one of its highest GDP growth rates since 1989 The economy. advanced by 8 2 reaching EUR 24 5 billion21 exceeding even the most optimistic forecasts. According to Lucian Anghel chief economist of Banka Commerciala Romana BCR the unexpected. GDP growth is the result of a strong base effect in terms of tax collection and generation of electrical. Ion Ghizdeanu the chairman of the National Forecast Commission revealed that because of the. outstanding economic growth the GDP figure for the whole of 2008 could be higher than previously. The sectors with the highest contribution to the GDP are industry 36 7 services 37 7 and. agriculture 8 6 24, Total GDP for 2007 was estimated to be EUR 115 519 billion 25 According to the International. Monetary Fund IMF GDP per capita for 2008 is estimated to be EUR 7 868 which is still only about. 37 of the euro area s level, http www worldwide tax com romania romania tax news asp. http www zf ro articol 178693 romania s trade deficit expected to stabilise html. http www imf org external pubs ft scr 2008 cr08208 pdf. http www insse ro cms rw pages index en do, http www economist com countries Romania profile cfm folder Profile Forecast. http www romaniareport com investinromania xml,http www insse ro cms rw pages index en do. http www insse ro cms files statistici comunicate pib pib trimIV e07 pdf. http www imf org external pubs ft weo 2008 01 weodata weorept aspx sy 2006 ey 2013 scsm 1 ssd 1 sort country ds br 1 c 968. s NGDP RPCH 2CNGDPD 2CNGDPDPC 2CPPPGDP 2CPPPPC 2CPCPIPCH grp 0 a pr1 x 87 pr1 y 12. http www imf org external np ms 2008 042108 htm,PEST Analysis of Romania Page 5 of 15.
September 2008,7 9 5 0 6 0, Graph 1 GDP of Romania real change in against previous year 2006 2010 28 29. The current increase in inflation is mainly a consequence of the supply shocks of food and energy. which Romania experienced last year In 2007 drought destroyed one third of Romania s agricultural. yield which triggered an increase in food prices As a result the inflation rate rose from 3 7 in May. 2007 to 8 6 in April 2008 As a natural consequence food experienced the largest price increase. of 9 14 in 2007 More worrying for the country in the long term is the fact that the booming. domestic demand is increasingly running up against the capacity of Romania particularly the tight. labor market and the underdeveloped public infrastructure Private sector wage growth is outpacing. productivity growth which has direct impact on the increasing inflation This fact is confirmed by the. recent surge in Producer Price Index PPI inflation driven from the higher unit labor costs associated. with doing business in the country,6 6 6 6 7 0, Graph 2 Consumer Prices in Romania change in against previous year 2006 2010. While the macroeconomic outlook is likely to remain stable additional fiscal policy contraction may. well be needed to keep inflation into the end 2009 target range. http www wiiw ac at pdf FC2 presse eng pdf, http www imf org external pubs ft scr 2008 cr08208 pdf. http www seeurope net q node 16089, http www monstersandcritics com news business news article 1386044 php. http www wiiw ac at pdf FC2 presse eng pdf,http www imf org external np ms 2008 042108 htm.
PEST Analysis of Romania Page 6 of 15,September 2008. Current Account Balance, Capital inflows have nourished a constantly increasing domestic spending boom Although current. account deficits are normal during the phase at which the Romanian economy is going through. Romania s gap is above what could be considered a normal level and raises concern over medium. to long term sustainability 34 In case of recession on the global markets foreign investors may. suddenly draw their investments out of Romania which can cause a huge collapse in the country s. After the increase with over three percentage points in 2007 the current account deficit reached the. worrying 14 of GDP Due to the larger growth of exports in comparison to imports in the first quarter. of 2008 with more than 1 year on year basis the gap shows signs of stabilization After the latest. ratification of the budget the targeted deficit was lowered from 2 percent of GDP to 2 percent of. GDP Despite the right direction of economic policy the IMF recommends even lower target of 1. percent of GDP 36 37, According to the IMF the huge account deficit has been created by investments mainly in the industry. sector which will certainly boost the productive capacity and will have positive effect on the exports in. the middle term, Graph 3 Current Account Deficit of Romania in of GDP 2006 2010 39. Interest Rates, In accordance with Albert Jaeger s advice IMF s Romania Mission Head the RCB continues to raise.
the interest rate in the country in order to manage a tighter monetary policy 40 On the last day of July. Romania s Central Bank set a new interest rate of 10 25 a hike of 0 25 which marked the. highest interest rate in the EU This was the seventh consecutive time for 2008 in which the central. bank corrected the interest rate in order to prevent a boom in the private borrowings which registered. a rise of 63 4 in June 41 42, http rbd doingbusiness ro en general economic trends 3 romania economic outlook expect the unexpected html 46. http www businessmonitor com businessforecasts romania html. http www imf org external np ms 2008 042108 htm, http rbd doingbusiness ro en general economic trends 3 romania economic outlook expect the unexpected html 46. http www imf org external pubs ft scr 2008 cr08208 pdf. http www wiiw ac at pdf FC2 presse eng pdf, http www romanianewswatch com 2008 04 imf says romania may need more action html. http balkaninsight com en main news 12182,PEST Analysis of Romania Page 7 of 15. September 2008, This policy despite being in harmony with IMF s recommendations is not supported by the Romanian.
Banker Association The latter warned that higher interest rates and further restriction on private. borrowing are among the key components which could lead to a crisis in Romania s real estate. market The market has already started to experience the influence of the tight monetary policy by. recording a drop by half of the sales of new apartments in the first six months of the year compared. to the monthly average in 2007, Over the past few years Romania has experienced a steady increase in FDI flows The quality of the. business environment has improved significantly and in 2007 Romania progressed from 55th to 48th. place in the World Bank s Doing Business report ranked higher than other countries in the region. such as Hungary the Czech Republic and Poland 44 In addition Romania emerged as the leading. Eastern Central European economy in attracting FDI with 150 projects taking it to sixth position in the. The Ernst Young European Investment Monitor EIM league table 45. As a relatively new member of the EU Romania shows a strong integration into the European. economic life More than 80 of the total invested capital in 2007 which amounted to EUR 7 076. million came from European countries 46 47 48, Figure 1 Percentage of foreign currency invested capital in companies as of 31 December. Stable FDI inflows have been concentrated in export oriented industries such as machinery and. equipment textiles and footwear metals and metal products minerals and fuels which shows strong. interest and profitability in Romania s export oriented industries and suggests that potential for future. real economic growth is present 50 51 52, http www rttnews com Content USEconomicNews aspx Node B2 Id 670441. http balkaninsight com en main life and style 12168. http ec europa eu economy finance publications publication11881 en pdf. http www eyeim com pdf EIM 202008 20Report 20final pdf. http www onrc ro statistici is may 2008 pdf, http mpra ub uni muenchen de 7280 1 MPRA paper 7280 pdf. http arisinvest ro en why romania fdi statistics,http www onrc ro statistici is may 2008 pdf.
https www cia gov library publications the world factbook geos ro html. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 8 of 15,September 2008. Some of the top foreign investors in the country are METRO Ford Carrefour Nokia OMV Erste. Bank Gaz de France Bamesa Otel Arcelormittal Galati Vodafone ENEL. According to the Financial Minister Varujan Vosganian FDI for 2008 may exceed the psychological. threshold of EUR 10 billion due to the recorded EUR 4 2 billion in the first five months of the year. Gilbert Wood the president of the Foreign Investors Council FIC adopts the widespread optimistic. view on the current business environment in Romania Nevertheless he thinks that Romania needs. to improve the flexibility of its labor market to level the playing field for all businesses to uniform the. enforcement of the existing legislation and to clarify its tax laws in order to unleash the country s full. potential 56,Figure 2 FDI in Romania EUR million 2005 2008 57. Employment Growth Income and Wages, The Romanian labor market can be best described as tight The strong economic growth combined. with the labor force emigration is among the main reasons for the 6 4 unemployment rate recorded. in 2007 The positive trend continued in 2008 as the favorable conditions boosted seasonal hiring. and the unemployment rate fell to 3 9 in April In comparison to other middle sized or large. European countries such as Poland and Spain this figure is very low 59. http www imf org external pubs ft scr 2008 cr08208 pdf. http www ambbukarest um dk da menu Eksportraadgivning Markedsmuligheder SidsteNyt ForeignDirectInvestmentInRomania htm. http www roconsulboston com Pages InfoPages Businesspages RetailOct07 html. http arisinvest ro en why romania top foreign companies in romania. http www silobreaker com DocumentReader aspx Item 5 885278727. http www roconsulboston com Pages InfoPages Businesspages InvestClimate html. http www wiiw ac at pdf FC2 presse eng pdf,http seeurope net q node 16183. http www answers com topic romania,PEST Analysis of Romania Page 9 of 15.
September 2008,Graph 4 Gradual tightening of the labor market60. By economic sector 29 5 of the total employed population worked in agriculture 31 4 in industry. and constructions and 39 1 in services 61 62,5 0 5 7 5 5 5 5. Graph 5 Unemployment in Romania 2006 2010 63 64, According to ING Bank Romania wage growth is to remain stable throughout 2008 The experts of. the bank expect nominal net wage economy wide to increase by near 20 year on year which is a. little bit lower than the 22 in 2007 Latest data reveals more optimistic results and shows that for. April 2008 the increase in the wage is 25 year on year The official data from National Statistical. Institute show that the average monthly wage is EUR 354 The highest wages of EUR 1 030 is. received by bank employees while wood processing workers get only EUR 193 66. Despite the increase in the earnings of the Romanian citizens unions have protested since the. beginning of the year They demand an increase of the minimum wage which now stands at EUR. 143 to EUR 171 from September 2008 However the Minister of the Economy Varujan Vosganian. http www imf org external pubs ft scr 2008 cr08208 pdf. http www insse ro cms files pdf en cp3 pdf,http seeurope net q node 16183. http www imf org external pubs ft scr 2008 cr08208 pdf. http www wiiw ac at pdf FC2 presse eng pdf, http rbd doingbusiness ro en general economic trends 4 romania economic outlook expect the unexpected html 80.
http www monstersandcritics com news business news article 1409245 php Romanian wages jump by 25 per cent. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 10 of 15,September 2008. denied the request stating that inflation target and labour productivity criteria had not been fulfilled. and a potential increase of the minimum wage is dangerous for the economy. Figure 3 Romania Net Average Earning Monthly year on year change 68. Economic Ratings, According to the rating agency Fitch Romania is in the low risk countries in terms of investments. having a rating of BBB, Standard Poor s S P s however lowered their rating for Romania and it is currently BBB with a. negative outlook If further downgrade rating appears it will lead to a departure from the investment. grade category 70, Despite the poor grading Romania managed to top the S P s 2008 Fiscal Flexibility Index FFI The. index calculated for 30 European countries shows the governments ability to adjust to adverse. economic trends and to react effectively in the presence of economic shocks by modifying tax and. expenditure policies In comparison Bulgaria got the eighth place in the ranking. A pool conducted by KPMG shows a decrease in the trust of the multinational companies concerning. the economic stability of Romania Only 40 of the foreign companies shared an optimistic view. about the future of the financial situation in the country while in the previous bulletin the number was. Banking System, The banking sector in Romania has continued its outstanding performance In an extensive Business.
Monitor International BMI study of the banking industry in 59 countries worldwide Romania is. ranked first in terms of local currency loan growth and of local currency deposit growth as well as fifth. in terms of local currency asset growth 73,http www seeurope net q node 16059. http www romanianewswatch com 2008 06 romania wages and salaries april 2008 html. http www zf ro articol 159262 second agency downgrades romania s rating html. http www2 standardandpoors com portal site sp en us page topic ratings sov 2 1 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 1 1 html. http www seenews com news latestnews romaniatopss p2008fiscalflexibilityindex 133116. http www zf ro articol 159262 second agency downgrades romania s rating html. http www researchandmarkets com reportinfo asp report id 603376 t d cat id. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 11 of 15,September 2008. Last year s net profit in the industry amounted to EUR 825 million and the expectations for 2008 are. that the number will exceed EUR 1 billion The industry is characterized by a high concentration of. profits with BCR and the BRD Groupe Soci t G n rale holding almost 65 of the total earnings 74. Social Factors,Demographics, Naturally the Romanians dominate by far the ethnic composition in the country The second largest. group is Hungarians with near 7 of the population and the rest are Roma German and Ukrainian. The lack of diversity in the ethnic composition is due to the restricting policy of movement of people in. Romania forced by the communist party during the second half of last century. Hungarians, Figure 4 Ethnic Composition of the Romanian Population. The official language in Romania is Romanian an Eastern Romance language In a region of. predominantly Slav linguistic base Romania is the only country having Latinity Hungarian and. German are also widely spread Nearly 87 of the population belongs to the Romanian Orthodox. Church The Hungarian minority makes up almost the entire group of followers of the Roman Catholic. Church Reformed Protestant Baptist and Pentecostal add up to 5 of the population the rest being. adherents to the Muslim and Jewish faiths 77,Figure 5 Romanian Population 1962 2007.
http www zf ro articol 176287 in four months bankers make half of last year s profit html. http soderkoping org ua page2468 html, http www ceinet org download sef 2003 s7 Bordignon pdf. http www state gov r pa ei bgn 35722 htm,PEST Analysis of Romania Page 12 of 15. September 2008, It is estimated that Romania has a population of 22 246 862 in 200878 with an average population. density of 94 people per sq km The population growth rate is 0 136 birth rate and death rate. being 10 61 births 1 000 population and 11 84 deaths 1 000 population respectively Life expectancy. in the country is calculated to be 72 18 years 79, The age structure of the country is as follows 0 14 years 15 6 15 64 years 69 7 and 65 years. and over 14 7 Due to the ex communist regime policies Romania has extremely high proportion. of young adults in its population The only Western country with higher ratio is Slovenia 8 55 of the. Romanian population was born in the period from 1976 to 1980 compared with 6 33 of the. Britons 80 However after the fall of the communist regime the country has been experiencing a. downturn in this trend,Figure 6 Population by Age Group 1975 2025.
Households, Household expenditures on food beverages and tobacco amount to 50 of the total household. expenditures in Romania Standard house expenditures including rent water electricity and other. furnishings and fuels amount to 19 4 and expenditures for clothing equals 6 2 of total household. The average size of a Romanian household in 2007 was 2 92 people. The Human Development Index HDI, The HDI provides a composite measure of three dimensions of human development living a long. and healthy life measured by life expectancy being educated measured by adult literacy and. enrolment at the primary secondary and tertiary level and having a decent standard of living. measured by purchasing power parity PPP income Romania s score in the index is 0 813. ranking the country 60 th out of 177 countries, In comparison Bulgaria Hungary Poland Slovakia and the Czech Republic have all better ranking 84. http www worldinfozone com country php country Romania. https www cia gov library publications the world factbook geos ro html. http www nationmaster com graph peo tot pop age 252 of the tot total population age 25 29. http earthtrends wri org text register php raction form theme 4 tool cp pkid 151. http www finfacts ie irishfinancenews article 1013977 shtml. http www unece org hlm documents 2008 ECE HBP 2008 5 FINAL pdf. http hdrstats undp org countries country fact sheets cty fs ROM html. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 13 of 15,September 2008. Figure 7 Romanian performance in HDI index 2008,Technological Factors.
Recent statistics show that 70 of the Romanians do not have basic computer skills and 43 5 of. the urban inhabitants in the country own a computer However the nationwide number drops to. 24 6 Computers are still not very popular at the working place with only 9 8 penetration 85. According to BMI Romania will continue to be the leader in the IT markets in Eastern Europe In. 2007 total domestic spending on IT services and products amounted to US 1 3 billion with forecast. that the number will rise to US 2 billion in 2012, Romania has internet penetration of 23 which is the lower in comparison to the neighboring. countries Bulgaria Serbia and Hungary The volume of finances invested to online advertising is. projected at EUR 10 million for 2007 87, In 2008 the rate of penetration of the telephony in Romania is of 80 which can be considered as. low In terms of wireless access through networks of mobile phones Romania has managed to catch. up European levels of 4 88,Research Development, Closely related with its excellent economic growth Romania s Research and Development R D. system is currently recovering after the decline in the transition years when he number of R D. employees recorded a loss of about 10 000 researchers The government is increasing with a stable. pace the public R D expenditures achieving 0 7 of GDP in 2008 The final aim is to meet the. Lisbon Strategy criteria of 3 Therefore the estimation for 2010 is that R D expenditures will be 1. http www financiarul com articol 9546 romania the last of eu at internet and telephony html. http www businessmonitor com it romania html,http www etarget eu partner network php rs. http www financiarul com articol 9546 romania the last of eu at internet and telephony html. http cordis europa eu erawatch index cfm fuseaction ri content countryCode RO topicID 5 parentID 4. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 14 of 15,September 2008.
Graph 6 Public R D Expenditures as part of GDP 2006 2010. According to the 2007 2013 National Strategy for R D and Innovation RDI public investment in RDI. will be oriented towards priority RDI fields such as information and communication technologies. advanced technologies and innovative products new materials in industry agriculture and food. safety health energy environment and transportation sustainable development including bio and. eco technologies and frontier sciences, Prime Minister Calin Popescu said that the current government has introduced numerous fiscal. advantages for private companies performing in the field of R D in Romania Such examples are the. centers of excellence such as the ones created by Renault Microsoft or Ericsson 90. http www publicservice co uk feature story asp id 9207. PEST Analysis of Romania Page 15 of 15,September 2008.

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