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Published by the Sustainable Development Solutions Network SDSN and. the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations IDDRI. September 2015, This executive summary and the country reports supporting this analysis are available. at www deepdecarbonization org, Copyright 2015 SDSN IDDRI. This copyrighted material is not for commercial use or dissemination print or electronic For personal. corporate or public policy research or educational purposes proper credit bibliographical reference. and or corresponding URL should always be included. Cite this report as, Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project 2015 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 report. executive summary SDSN IDDRI, The Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations IDDRI is a non profit policy. research insti t ute based in Paris Its objective is to determine and share the keys for analyzing and. understanding strategic issues linked to sustainable development from a global perspective IDDRI. helps stakeholders in deliberating on global governance of the major issues of common interest. action to attenuate climate change to protect biodiversity to enhance food security and to manage. urbanization and also takes part in efforts to reframe development pathways. The Sustainable Development Solutions Network SDSN was commissioned by UN Secretary. General Ban Ki moon to mobilize scientific and technical expertise from academia civil society and. the private sector to support practical problem solving for sustainable development at local national. and global scales The SDSN operates national and regional networks of knowledge institutions. solution focused thematic groups and is building SDSNedu an online university for sustainable. development, Disclaimer, This report was written by a group of independent experts who have not been nominated.
by their governments Any views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the. views of any government or organization agency or program of the United Nations. Publishers Teresa Ribera Jeffrey Sachs, Managing editors Jim Williams Henri Waisman Laura Segafredo. Layout and figures Ivan Pharabod Christian Oury, The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project DDPP is convened under the. auspices of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations. IDDRI and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network SDSN. The project is led by, Teresa Ribera Director IDDRI. Jeffrey Sachs Director SDSN, Michel Colombier Scientific Director IDDRI. Guido Schmidt Traub Executive Director SDSN, Henri Waisman DDPP Director IDDRI.
Jim Williams DDPP Director SDSN, Laura Segafredo Senior DDPP Manager SDSN. Roberta Pierfederici DDPP Manager IDDRI, This report was jointly prepared by the members of the 16 DDPP Country Research Teams. Australia Amandine Denis ClimateWorks Australia Frank Jotzo Crawford School of Public Policy Australian. National University Anna Skrabek ClimateWorks Australia Brazil Emilio La Rovere COPPE Federal University Rio. de Janeiro UFRJ COPPE Claudio Gesteira COPPE William Wills COPPE Carolina Grottera COPPE Canada. Chris Bataille Navius Research Simon Fraser University Dave Sawyer Carbon Management Canada Noel Melton. Navius Research China Fei Teng Institute of Energy Environment Economy Tsinghua University 3E Qiang. Liu National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation NCSC Alun Gu 3E Xi Yang. 3E Xin Wang 3E Yi Chen NCSC Chuan Tian NCSC Xiaoqi Zheng NCSC France Patrick Criqui Universit. Grenoble Alpes CNRS EDDEN PACTE Sandrine Mathy Universit Grenoble Alpes CNRS EDDEN PACTE Jean. Charles Hourcade Centre International de Recherche sur l Environnement et le D veloppement CIRED Germany. Katharina Hillebrandt Wuppertal Institute WI Saschsa Samadi WI Manfred Fischedick WI India P R Shukla. Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad IIMA Subash Dhar UNEP DTU Partnership Minal Pathak Centre. for Urban Equity and Faculty of Planning CEPT University Ahmedabad CEPT Darshini Mahadevia CEPT Amit. Garg IIMA Indonesia Ucok W R Siagian Center for Research on Energy Policy Band ung Institute of Technology. CRE ITB Retno Gumilang Dewi CRE ITB Iwan Hendrawan CRE ITB Rizaldi Boer Centre for Climate Risk and. Opportunity Management Bogor Agriculture University CCROM IPB Gito Eman nuel Gintings CCROM IPB Italy. Maria Rosa Virdis Italian National Agency for New Technologies Energy and Sustainable Economic Development. ENEA Maria Gaeta ENEA Isabella Alloisio Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Japan Mikiko Kainuma National. Institute for Environmental Studies NIES Ken Oshiro Mizuho Information and Research Institute MIRI Go Hibino. MIRI Toshihiko Masui NIES Mexico Daniel Buira Instituto Nacional de Ecolog a y Cambio Clim tico INECC. Jordi Tovilla Russia Oleg Lugovoy Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration. RANEPA Georges Safonov High School of Economics Moscow Vladimir Potashnikov RANEPA South Africa. Hilton Trol lip The Energy Research Centre ERC University of Cape Town UCT Katye Altieri ERC UCT Alison. Hughes ERC UCT Tara Caetano ERC UCT Bruno Merven ERC UCT Harald Winkler ERC UCT South Korea. Soogil Young School of Public Policy and Management Korea Development Institute KDI Chang hoon Lee Korea. Environment Institute Yong sung Cho Korea University College of Life Sciences and Biotechnology Jae hak Oh. Korea Transport Institute United Kingdom Steve Pye University College London UCL Energy Institute Gabrial. Anandarajah UCL Energy Institute United States of America Jim Williams Energy Environmental Economics. E3 Ben Haley E3 Sam Borgeson E3, The following Partner Organizations contribute to the DDPP. German Development Institute GDI International Energy Agency IEA International Institute for Applied Systems. Analysis IIASA World Business Council on Sustainable Development WBCSD. 1 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 executive summary. Acknowledgements, The DDPP is grateful for generous financial support received from many supporters. including the Children s Investment Fund Foundation CIFF Deutsche Gesellschaft. f r Internationale Zusamme narbeit GIZ the German Environment Ministry the. Gross Family Foundation The European Climate Foundation ECF Agence de l En. vironnement et de la Ma trise de l nergie ADEME IDDRI and the SDSN Many. others have provided direct assistance to individual Country Research Partners. Critical support in the preparation of this report was provided by L na Spinazz. Pierre Barth l my Delphine Donger and all the IDDRI team the SDSN team Ivan. Pharabod Christian Oury Eva Polo Campos Miguel Lopez Caty Arevalo. Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 executive summary 2. What is the DDPP, 1 1 What is the DDPP, Purpose The Deep Decarbonization Pathways to reduce emissions consistent with the 2 C.
Project DDPP is a collaborative global research limit The research teams develop deep decar. initiative to understand how individual countries bonization pathways DDPs sector by sec. can transition to a low carbon economy con tor blueprints of changes over time in physical. sistent with the internationally agreed goal of infrastructure such as power plants vehicles. limiting anthropogenic warming to less than 2 buildings and industrial equipment that in. degrees Celsius C Staying within this limit form decision makers about the technology. requires global net emissions of greenhouse gas requirements and costs of different options. es GHG to approach zero in the second half for reducing emissions DDPs are n ot fore. of this century This will entail more than any cas ts of fut ure outcomes but backcas ts. other factor a profound transformation of en that begin with an emissions target in 2050. ergy systems through steep declines in carbon and determine the steps required to get there. intensity across all sectors a transition we call Country teams are autonomous in defining. deep decarbonization their targets choosing their analytical meth. ods and incorporating national aspirations for, Organization The DDPP consists of research development and economic growth in their. teams from 16 countries representing 74 of scenarios along with other feat ures of na. current global CO2 emissions from energy Aus tional context such as existing infrastructure. tralia Brazil Canada China France Germany In technology preferences and natural resource. dia Indonesia Italy Japan Mexico Russia South endowments At the same time the DDPP is. Africa South Korea the United Kingdom and highly collaborative with transparent sharing. the United States The teams consist of scholars of methods tools data and results among the. from leading research institutions in their respec country teams. tive countries who are acting independently and, do not represent the official positions of their Results Formed in October 2013 the DDPP. national governments The DDPP is convened issued a report on the first phase of its work at. by the Sustainable Development Solutions Net the United Nations Climate Summit in Septem. work SDSN and the Institute for Sustainable ber 2014 at the invitation of Secretary General. Development and International Relations IDDRI Ban Ki moon This report summarized the ini. and coordinated by a joint secretariat of these tial research of each country team In the fall of. organizations 2015 all 16 teams are publishing stand alone. reports describing in greater detail their research. Approach The DDPP fills a gap in the climate into national DDPs In addition a new synthesis. policy dialogue by providing a more concrete report provides a cross cutting analysis of the. understanding of what is required for countries aggregate results. 3 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 executive summary. Is limiting global warming to 2 C achievable, 2 Is limiting global warming. to 2 C achievable, Deep decarbonization of today s highest or 46 56 below 2010 levels Figure 1 These. emitting economies is technically achieva scenarios take into account expected population. ble and can accommodate expected econom growth of 17 on average across the DDPP coun. ic and population growth Each country team tries during the 2010 2050 period and also ac. produced multiple technically feasible pathways commodate aggregate GDP growth of 250 an. that resulted in deep decarbonization of their average rate of 3 1 per year during the period. economies Across all scenarios by the year In the most ambitious set of scenarios average. 2050 energy related CO2 emissions for the 16 per capita emissions in 2050 were reduced to 2 1 t. DDPP countries were reduced to 9 9 12 1 Gt CO2 CO2 person across countries while average emis. Figure 1 Emissions trajectories for energy CO2 2010 2050 showing most ambitious reduction scenarios. for all DDPP countries 2050 aggregate emissions are 57 below 2010 levels. South Africa, 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050.
Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 executive summary 4. Is limiting global warming to 2 C achievable, sions per unit of GDP were reduced 87 relative the 16 countries analyzed In the first phase. to 2010 with a range of 80 96 across countries of the DDPP the research teams have focused. Figure 2 This order of magnitude decrease in primarily on understanding technical options. carbon intensity of GDP shows the scenarios to and enabling conditions for deep decarboni. be truly transformative The clustering of carbon zation by mid century within their countries. intensity trajectories shows similar levels of am but did not necessarily design their pathways. bition across DDPP countries even while absolute to minimize cumulative emissions However. emissions trajectories reflect different stages of the analysis has already revealed opportunities. economic development for deeper reductions and earlier timing of the. low carbon transition These opportunities will, These results do not represent an upper be explored further during the next phase of. limit on emissions reduction potential for DDPP research. Figure 2 L Energy related CO2 emissions per capita for DDPP countries. R Energy related CO2 emissions per unit of GDP for DDPP countries 2010 to 2050 indexed to 2010. tCO2 cap 20 1 2 index 1 2010, South Africa 0 4, Mexico 0 2. Indonesia 2, India 0 0 0, 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050. Emissions per capita Emissions per unit of GDP, 5 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 executive summary.
Is limiting global warming to 2 C achievable, DDPP cumulative emissions are not incon emissions of 805 to 847 Gt CO2 from energy. sistent with the 2 C limit in comparison to during 20 10 2050 A context for assessing. an IPCC benchmark However since only 16 these emissions levels is found in the Fifth. countries were covered by the DDPP analysis Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental. demonstrating that staying within 2 C is likely Panel on Climate Change IPCC which defines. will require understanding the decarbonization ranges of CO 2 emissions associated with dif. opportunities in non DDPP countries and may ferent likelihoods of limiting global warming. well require deeper emissions reductions than to 2 C Table 1 The difference between these. in the current pathways in the DDPP coun benchmark values and DDPP cumulative emis. tries The DDPP scenarios result in cumulative sions must allow for emissions from sources. that were not analyzed including land use and, industrial process emissions and most notably. 1 Pathways to deep decarbonization 2015 executive summary The Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project DDPP is convened under the auspices of the Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations IDDRI andthe Sustainable Development Solutions Network SDSN The project is led by Teresa Ribera Director IDDRI

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