June 2014 Boj Org Jm-Books Pdf

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Inflation Expectations Survey, The Statistical Institute of Jamaica STATIN undertakes surveys of businesses on behalf of the. Bank of Jamaica to ascertain the expectations of these economic agents about variables which. are likely to have an impact on inflation in the near term In this regard the survey captures the. perception of Chief Executive Officers Managing Directors and Financial Controllers about the. future movement of prices current and future business conditions and the expected rate of. increase in wages salaries These responses assist the Central Bank in charting future policy decisions The. most recent survey was conducted in June 2014 and had 272 respondents Below are highlights from that. Figure 1 Inflation Expectations, For the calendar year 2013 the inflation rate was. 9 47 per cent What do you think the inflation rate. will be for 2014, The June 2014 survey indicated an. Actual Pt to Pt Headline CY 2014 Forecast CY 2014 Expectation expected inflation of 10 7 per cent for. calendar year CY 2014 an increase, relative to the previous survey The. 10 0 expected inflation 12 months ahead, however declined to single digit levels.
Annual point to point, The perception of inflation control. improved in the June 2014 survey relative, 4 0 to the previous survey. 2 0 In comparison to the previous survey, respondents expect a slower pace of. Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14, exchange rate depreciation in the 3. months 6 months and 12 months horizons, Figure 2 Expected Annual Inflation The majority of respondents believe that.
the Bank s OMO rate will be marginally, Based on the last 12 months June 2013 to May. higher over the next three months, 2014 the average monthly inflation rate was. approximately 0 65 per cent What do you think the, Both the perception of present and future. average monthly rate will be for the next 12, business conditions improved relative to. the previous survey Since the April 2013, Actual Expected.
survey there has been a general upward, trend in present and future business. conditions, Inflation Expectations, 4 0 In the June 2014 survey the expected inflation. 2 0 for CY2014 was 10 7 per cent relative to the, 0 0 10 4 per cent expected in the May survey The. expected inflation for CY2014 exceeds the, outturn of 9 5 per cent for CY2013 Further. Note i The responses have been annualized ii the actual point to point inflation at June 2014. the expected inflation for June 2015 reflects, was 8 0 per cent see Figure 1.
responses as at June 2014 ii periods where no, survey was conducted assume the previous month s. expectation, Prepared by the Research Services Department Page 1. June 2014 Survey, Inflation Expectations Survey, Figure 3 Perception of Inflation Control Respondents expectation of inflation 12. How satisfied are you with the way inflation is months ahead however declined to 9 8 per. being controlled by the Government 1 cent in the June 2014 survey relative to 10 4. per cent in the May 2014 survey see Figure, Very Satisfied Satisfied Neither Dissatisfied Very Dissatisfied. 100 10 0 250 2, Perception of Inflation Control, 70 The results of the June 2014 survey reflected.
an improvement in businesses perception of, inflation control by the authorities when. compared to the previous survey Specifically, the index of inflation control increased to. 149 9 from 119 5 in the May 2014 survey, 25 4 per cent see Figure 3 This. improvement mainly reflected a decline in the, number of respondents who were dissatisfied. December 2005 100 with the authorities control of inflation. Table 1 Exchange Rate Expectations Exchange Rate Expectations. In May 2014 the exchange rate was Relative to the survey in May 2014. J 111 26 US 1 00 What do you think the rate will respondents expected a slower pace of. be for the following time periods ahead 3 months depreciation in the domestic currency for the. 6 months and 12 months, 3 month 6 month and 12 month period.
OVERALL SURVEY, beyond the survey date In the June 2014. survey the exchange rate was expected to, Periods Expected Depreciation. depreciate by 2 1 per cent 4 1 per cent and, Sep 13 Oct 13 May 14 Jun 14 5 8 per cent for the 3 month 6 month and 12. 3 Months 1 8 2 6 2 5 2 1 month horizons respectively see Table 1. 6 Months 3 2 4 3 4 5 4 1, The survey in May 2014 had indicated. 12 Months 4 7 5 9 5 9 5 8, expected depreciation of 2 5 per cent 4 5 per.
Figure 4 180 day T bill cent and 5 9 per cent over the respective. In April 2014 the 180 day T bill rate was 9 0 per, cent What do you think the rate will be for the next. 3 months Interest Rate Expectations 180, Actual Intrate 6mth T bill Exp All Exp Intrate Fin. day T bill, 10 9 5 9 5 9 5 9 5, The expected 180 day Treasury bill rate three. 9 0 8 9 9 1 9 2, Response Actual Exp Intrate, months hence was moderated to 9 1 per cent. relative to the previous survey This expected, 6 rate however remained above the actual.
4 outturn for June 2014 see Figure 4 In the, June 2014 auction the actual interest rate on. 1 the 180 day Treasury bill was 8 9 per cent, Apr 2014 May 2014 Jun 2014 relative to 9 0 per cent in the May 2014. Index of inflation control calculated as the number of satisfied. respondents minus the number of dissatisfied respondents plus. Prepared by the Research Services Department Page 2. June 2014 Survey, Inflation Expectations Survey, Table 2 Interest rate Expectations OMO Interest Rate Expectations OMO. In May 2014 the Bank of Jamaica s 30 day rate, In the June 2014 survey the majority of. was 5 75 per cent What do you think this rate will. be for the next 3 months respondents expected that the Bank s OMO. rate would be marginally higher over the next, OVERALL FIN SECTOR three months This reflected a switch from the.
majority view in the previous survey that the, SURVEY DATES Apr 14 May 14 Jun Jul 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun Jul 14 rate would remain unchanged In the June. survey 47 1 per cent of respondents, Survey responses percentage of total anticipated a marginal increase in the rate. Significantly Lower 1 3 11 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 relative to the 2 0 per cent of respondents who. Marginally Lower 9 0 38 6 8 8 8 3 13 7 9 4 perceived an increase in the May 2014 survey. Remain the Same 39 3 44 1 38 2 43 8 43 1 35 9, The results for the financial sector were. Marginally Higher 44 9 2 0 47 1 45 8 39 2 48 4, consistent with the overall view that the BOJ. Significantly Higher 1 3 3 9 4 4 0 0 2 0 6 3, would increase OMO rates marginally.
Don t Know 4 3 0 0 1 5 2 1 2 0 0 0, Figure 5 Present Business Conditions Perception of Present and Future. In general do you think business conditions are Business Conditions. better or worse than they were a year ago in, Jamaica In the recent survey there was an. improvement in both the perception of present, and future business conditions among. Index of Present Business Conditions, respondents relative to the previous survey. 120 However both indices remained below the, levels recorded in FY2011 12 see Figures 5.
60 and 6 The perceptions of present and future, business conditions continue to display a. 0 general upward trend since the April 2013, December 2005 100. Figure 6 Future Business Conditions, Do you think that in a year from now business. conditions will get better or get worse than they are. at present, Index of Future Business Conditions, December 2005 100. Prepared by the Research Services Department Page 3. June 2014 Survey, Inflation Expectations Survey, Table 3 Operating Expenses Expected Increase in Operating.
Which input do you think will have the highest, price increase in the next 12 months Expenses. Respondents continued to indicate that they, expect the largest increase in production costs. Feb 14 Apr 14 May 14 Jun 14 over the next 12 months to emanate from. Utilities 38 4 38 9 43 3 43 8 higher cost for utilities see Table 3 Stock. Wages Salaries 5 6 9 0 4 3 7 0, replacement was expected to be the second. Fuel Transport 22 8 15 4 16 9 12 5, largest contributor to higher production costs. 18 8 21 8 20 1 23 5, Replacement over the next 12 months The cost of.
Raw Materials 14 0 13 7 13 8 11 8, fuel transport and raw materials were also. Other 0 4 1 3 1 6 1 5, Not Stated 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0, expected to contribute significantly to higher. production costs for the year ahead Wages, Salaries remained the input costs least. expected to increase over the next 12 months, Prepared by the Research Services Department Page 4. The June 2014 survey indicated an expected inflation of 10 7 per cent for calendar year CY 2014 an increase relative to the previous survey The expected inflation 12 months ahead however declined to single digit levels The perception of inflation control improved in the June 2014 survey relative to the previous survey

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