Exploration Geologic Risk Assessment And Prospect Evaluation-Books Pdf

Exploration Geologic Risk Assessment and Prospect Evaluation
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In san i ty, Extreme folly or, unreasonableness, Albert Einstein. Insanity is doing the same, thing over and over again. and expecting a different, Definitions, Risk Analysis. An integrated project assessment resources, chance economics under conditions of. uncertainty, Utilized for subsequent Decision Analysis.
Risk Management, The art and science of identifying analyzing. and responding to risk factors throughout, the life of a project. Uncertainty Range of possible, Chance Likelihood of occurrence. Risk Threat of loss, Expected Value, The basic equation for project evaluation. EV Pc PVc Pf PVf, Expected Value is the, sum of the.
probability weighted outcomes, c commercial success outcomes. f geologic and commercial, failure outcomes, Basic Equation for Project Evaluation. This part of the Basic Equation is expressed as a cash flow. schedule incorporating net revenue interest NRI production. decline time value of money and anticipated inflation. NET FINDING, Pc NRI EUR X, PRICE DEVELOPING, OPERATING COSTS. NET AFTER PROJECT EXPECTED, 1 Pc TAX FAILURE NET PRESENT VALUE. NRI Net Revenue Interest 1 Royalty, Basic Equation for Project Evaluation.
This part of the Basic Equation is expressed as a cash flow. schedule incorporating net revenue interest NRI production. decline time value of money and anticipated inflation. NET FINDING, PRICE DEVELOPING, OPERATING COSTS, NET AFTER PROJECT EXPECTED. 1 Pc TAX FAILURE NET PRESENT VALUE, NRI Net Revenue Interest 1 Royalty. Exploration Evaluation Process, Recommend Process Improvements. Probabilistic Recommend Process, EUR Improvements, Estimation. Engineering Post Drill, Prospect or, Economics Assessments.
Play Drill, Com Econ Performance, Evaluation, Truncation Tracking. Geologic Recommended, Chance Technology, Assessment Spending. Recommend Process Improvements, After Otis Schneidermann 1997. Objectives, 1 Discuss uncertainty in E P its magnitude and. effects and the application of statistics to, characterize uncertainty.
2 Discuss fundamentals of estimating prospect, resources EUR and assessment of chance of. success that lead to accurate calculation of value. and better exploration decisions, 3 Convey the importance of assessing geotechnical. performance by comparing forecasts of estimated, ultimate recovery critical chance factors and. profitability with actual outcomes, 4 Learn network and have fun. Objectives, Statistics and Uncertainty, 1 Discuss uncertainty in E P its magnitude and.
effects and the application of statistics to, characterize uncertainty. 2 Discuss fundamentals of estimating prospect, resources EUR and assessment of chance of. success that lead to accurate calculation of value. and better exploration decisions, 3 Convey the importance of assessing geotechnical. performance by comparing forecasts of estimated, ultimate recovery critical chance factors and. profitability with actual outcomes, 4 Learn network and have fun.
Definitions, Event One of two or more things, which can occur aka. possible outcomes, Outcome What does occur, Probability Subjective confidence about the. likelihood of an uncertain future, event given repeated trials. Distribution An orderly portrayal of related data samples. selected from a population, Sample and Population Descriptive. Measures of central tendency, Mode the most frequent event.
Median half events are above half are below, Mean average of all values in the distribution. Measures of uncertainty, Variance the average of squares about the mean. Standard deviation square root of variance, P10 P90 ratio of the P10 to the P90. Plotting Conventions, Definitions GE or LE, Industry standard GE. Explorers think in terms of large discoveries, Consistent with SEC SPE WPC AAPG guidelines.
Commercial threshold truncations easier to apply, Less confusing for decision makers. In a Greater Than convention, P10 is the larger number. P90 is the smaller number, What Are P10 and P90, In the GE convention. P10 is the value on the distribution for which there is a 10. probability that a random selection from that distribution will be. greater than or equal to that value this is a large number. P90 is the value on the distribution for which there is a 90. probability that a random selection from that distribution will be. greater than or equal to that value this is a small number. In the LE convention, P10 is the value on the distribution for which there is a 10. probability that a random selection from that distribution will be. less than or equal to that value this is a small number. P90 is the value on the distribution for which there is a 90. probability that a random selection from that distribution will be. less than or equal to that value this is a large number. These definitions apply to any Pvalue, Distributions.
Sums tend to have, distributions that are, normal like. Products tend to have, distributions that are, lognormal like. Estimates of EUR Resources are products, Area x Avg Net Pay x Recovery Yield. Resource Field Size Distribution, North Sea Brent Play. Estimates of EUR are, products Area x Net Pay, x Recovery Yield.
Geologic Risk Assessment And Prospect Evaluation Nahum Schneidermann Chevron retired Bob Otis om Rose amp Associates In san i ty Webster Extreme folly or unreasonableness Albert Einstein Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result Risk Analysis An integrated project assessment resources chance economics under conditions of

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