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Engendering development through international economic
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I Introduction, The title of this paper was conceived when the author was invited to join one of two panels on. Prebisch s works and influence at the 2014 FLACSO ISA International Conference in Buenos Aires The. consideration of engendering development through stronger international economic integration is one that. is essentially as old as Economics is as a discipline and not surprisingly over the course of the history of. that discipline that consideration has been sliced and diced by proponents and skeptics opponents alike. from many different angles, Prebisch himself entered the debate in the sense of doing so in a manner that was more accessible. to the English speaking world in the late 1940s Indeed it was the provocative opening sentence in what. Hirschman 1968 dubs Prebisch s manifesto In Latin America reality is undermining the out dated. schema of the international division of labour Prebisch 1950a p 1 that started to earn him ire from. many mainstream neoclassical trade and development economists. As is typical in such debate some opponents would zero in on certain elements in the arguments. of the party under attack to the neglect of other elements and thus intentionally or unintentionally distort. and misrepresent that party s original reasoning In the case of Prebisch instead of distilling from a larger. body of his works1 a more complete picture of the structure of his arguments mainstream attention has. mostly focused on the statement that appears several pages into his manifesto namely that the price. relation turned steadily against primary production from the 1870 s until the Second World War. Prebisch ibid p 8 As is well known this statement and the post WWII terms of trade movements that. it has allegedly predicted is subsequently dubbed the Prebisch Singer Thesis PST 2. To be sure Prebisch was just one of many participants in the debate that was subject to such. treatment Indeed the long history of the debate on whether stronger international economic integration. could be conducive to more rapid development has very much been muddled by such misrepresentations. and distortions Consider the group that is from the same generation as Prebisch and which is sometimes. called the classical development economists namely Rosenstein Rodan Nurkse Singer Myrdal. Hirschman etc Many of their rich and varied ideas big push balanced growth circular and cumulative. causation linkage effects to name a few defined the development policy debate in the 1950s and 1960s. Yet the economics mainstream in acts of misrepresentations and distortions of the very nature alluded to. above would boil all their ideas down to nothing but just support for import substitution IS Then. beginning from the 1970s it launched a neoclassical resurgence Myint 1987 Oftentimes operating. under the banner of export promotion EP this resurgence aimed at undermining IS and reasserting the. advantages of relatively more outward oriented trade regimes It subsequently became a key component. of neoliberalism or the Washington Consensus and that would take the debate to a new phase which is. frequently labeled as the globalization debate that has reached into the present millennium. Now that it is close to three decades since he has passed away just how might Prebisch size up. this latest phase of the ongoing debate especially with reference to the trends and issues thus far into the. 21st century It is quite a formidable challenge to say the least to attempt to answer this hypothetical. question Perhaps it is only reasonable to start with the very basic yet obvious question of what his. utmost concerns were regarding the underdeveloped countries 3 and what his recommendations for them. were and then to consider their relevance in the period since his death. Clearly if one subscribes to the mainstream portrayal of him then one would simply expect him. to adhere to the PST and that he would continue to be a champion for IS This paper however will argue. that his concerns with the underdeveloped countries were much broader and that his recommendations. for them more nuanced than what the mainstream has represented Broader concerns naturally raise more. and presumably more substantive analytical and policy questions While he certainly did not have as. many answers at least not in as much detail as some might wish him to have his broader set of. concerns puts the contents of his works in ready positions to link up some important strands of current. research and policy discussions Indeed his analysis appears to readily accommodate the changes and. development in the three decades or so since his death and allow for interpretations that while improving. one s understanding of the development process in some sense also directs one to meaningful research. questions that should be asked In other words it enables one to grasp these events and to position one to. ask further questions to improve that understanding. The rest of this paper is organized as follows Section II briefly but critically evaluates the. mainstream interpretation of Prebisch s ideas and argues that it is devoid of a conceptualization of any. process of development It then proposes a re interpretation that outlines what according to him. development in the underdeveloped countries would have to involve Although he did not explicitly and. systematically lay it out so he based his conceptualization of the development process on a departure. from four major assumptions that are otherwise regarded as standard in mainstream trade theories. Section III relates his departure from these assumptions to his support of IS which is interweaved with. EP and where both would be accompanied by efforts to enhance indigenous technological densities. Section IV describes his campaign for a tiered system of differential treatments in favor of. underdeveloped countries in the multilateral trading system that supposedly would facilitate their pursuit. of policies that are implied in section III The reader who follows the globalization debate will readily. recognize that these have remained some of the most hotly contested issues when it comes to multilateral. negotiations on trade foreign direct investment FDI and technology transfer. One element and a rather hackneyed one in Prebisch s conceptualization of development is. capital accumulation For the underdeveloped countries that especially during his time had not acquired. the technological densities to establish their own capital goods sector this translates into a need to. import That is why he attached much importance to their capacity to import and why he put heavy. emphasis on avoiding or limiting the persistent tendency toward disequilibrium in the primary. exporting countries balance of payments as they pursue development While the terms of trade for these. countries is part of the equation it is far from its entirety and in that sense the mainstream focus on the. PST is obfuscating Prebisch s broader concerns These clarifications are laid out in section V. By way of selectively focusing on certain developments and changes in the global economy that. have occurred since his death section VI considers how Prebisch might have sized them up based on the. elements in his works that have been highlighted in sections III through V That also serves as the. concluding section, II The Development Challenges Facing the Underdeveloped Countries. In Problems of Economic Growth Prebisch rather loosely characterizes underdeveloped countries. as those where a large proportion of the gainfully employed population is working under conditions of a. shortage of capital low productivity levels in primary production and other activities in which labour. costs are low Prebisch 1950b p 16 One of his interests in these countries obviously has to do with. their primary production and export activities although the analytical framework in which such activities. are placed is not something that the economics mainstream has bothered to decipher Thus viewed from. the analytical framework of conventional mainstream trade theories all seems to be well with primary. production and exports when one concludes that these countries are simply specializing in accordance. with their pattern of comparative advantage as reasoned from those theories. Prebisch challenged this conclusion and declared it outdated and he can be regarded as basing his. attack on a departure from four assumptions that underlie those mainstream theories namely 1 where. those theories typically make no distinction between different products with regard to 1 a their income. elasticity of demand and 1 b the different prospects for technological development that arise from them. he did 2 where those theories assume full employment pre and post trade he did not 3 where those. theories assume perfect domestic mobility of factor s of production between sectors he did not and 4. where in the Heckscher Ohlin model technology is assumed to be identical across countries he. recognized the presence of a persistent and even widening technological gap between the centers and. peripheral countries though to him this gap is by no means as immutable as in the textbook Ricardian. model because technology can be acquired by the underdeveloped countries 4. Hardly any mainstream trade and development theorist has ever represented Prebisch s challenge. to mainstream trade theories in this manner Instead what they have only read or heard about is the PST. As Palma 1992 p 442 shrewdly notes in his entry on Prebisch in A Biographical Dictionary of. Dissenting Economists, It is not clear whether Prebisch saw this PST as the most important part of his work but this. hypothesis was a seductive challenge to that part of the North American academic establishment. which is ever anxious to extract from the structuralist approach unidimensional hypotheses. referring to clearly established variables for its own consumption. Indeed once mainstream economists have succeeded in channeling attention to nothing but the PST their. reactions naturally fall into the following two broad categories Empirically many have questioned. whether the commodity terms of trade CTT have indeed deteriorated against the primary exporting. countries over time Analytically there have been awkward attempts to assimilate his analysis by portraying. it as nothing more than the mainstream optimal tariff argument for protection Thus for instance. Bhagwati 1984 p 202 n 11 concludes that Prebisch and others were elasticity pessimists and. therefore were essentially arguing for IS strategy on optimal tariff grounds 5. Limited by space this paper will stay out of the so called statistical debate revolving around the. PST As for the basis for assimilating his analysis it simply cannot find much textual support As. Flanders 1964 p 316 observes The significance of price inelastic demand for primary products has. been given much more attention in the commentaries than in Prebisch s own work Instead as section. V below illustrates his emphasis was rather on the disparities in the income elasticity of demand between. primary and manufactured products hence his departure from assumption 1 above as it relates to 1 a In. the relatively few moments when he referred to the low price elasticity of demand he was careful to. distinguish between the options that were open to a relatively small and isolated primary producing. country versus the hard realities facing those countries as a group 1950b pp 36 7 1951a pp 34 5. More fundamentally the mainstream attempt at assimilation reveals how it tends to trivialize. the process of development Thus consider a situation where operating within the mainstream. framework a tariff is deemed the optimal policy of intervention when one considers a country that is. large enough to exercise a monopoly power in trade Through the optimal tariff the diagrammatic. illustration shows the country reaching a higher community indifference curve However it is far from. clear what that framework can offer in furthering one s understanding of development as a process All. the complexities in that process in a supposedly large country have been reduced to a situation that calls. for one policy action namely the imposition of an optimal tariff What is the result This large country is. able to attain a higher level of welfare Keeping in mind that distributional problems are typically. assumed away in the neoclassical world everyone in that country can live happily thereafter But how in. practice does that intervention translate into an intricate historical series of economic and social processes. that result in development In the real world underdeveloped countries even ones with market power in. some primary products all face far more formidable challenges as they seek to engender and sustain. development Reaching a higher indifference curve in the neoclassical world and achieving development. in the real world are two entirely different things 6. That directs attention back to how Prebisch felt it necessary to depart from the aforementioned. four assumptions Given his recognition of the substantive developmental implications that depend on. what a country produces and exports departure relating to 1 b but given that many developing countries. of his time were relatively dependent on primary exports he emphasized broadly engendering technical. progress and productivity improvements to pursue development and raise the average per capita income. in those countries To that characterization of underdeveloped countries that was quoted at the beginning. of the present section he thus appends, Until modern technique can be extended to these persons thus modifying the nature of their.
occupations and progressively decreasing the disparities of productivity and income the. prevailing pattern of development will be maintained Large amounts of capital will be required. in order to effect this displacement of labour Once this stage of development is reached and. modern technique is assimilated in the various branches of economic activity development may. acquire the intensive characteristics of the great industrial countries 1950b p 16 italics added. It is noteworthy indeed that in his 1984 summary of his stages of thinking about development he recalls. that In formulating my point of view I mentioned from the beginning the role of technological progress. In particular my interest was attracted by the question of the international dissemination of technology. and the distribution of its fruits 1984 p 176 italics added 7 However readers of his works must when. he refers to technical progress and productivity improvements carefully distinguish between whether he. means the primary or manufacturing sector or both When he employs them in a broad sense. development entails diversification from primary production This is far from an automatic process. because contrary to mainstream trade theories factors of production are not perfectly mobile between. sectors departure from assumption 3 In particular starting out with specialization in primary. production these countries would have to go through a tremendous amount of technological learning. assimilation of modern techniques before they could enjoy sustained technical progress and productivity. improvements in the industrial sectors departure from assumption 4 But industrialization should not be. pursued to the neglect of the primary sector In fact to Prebisch investment should also be undertaken in. the latter sector to reap technical progress and productivity improvements But to the extent that such are. indeed reaped they would surely add to the existing number of unemployed departure from assumption. 2 In that case if the development process lacks dynamism and the industrial sector and various. accompanying service activities cannot grow fast enough to absorb a good number of such unemployed. then even if the average per capita income rises there would be some serious uneven distributional. Prebisch thus strongly advocated industrialization in the underdeveloped countries He did not. however seek to accomplish this while ignoring the primary sector In fact investments should be. undertaken in both the industrial and primary sectors but in manners that would hopefully enhance. technological densities so as to raise productivity and reduce unemployment. III Pursue IS cum EP but Enhance Technological Density. Alas Prebisch s approach to industrialization as are the ideas of the classical development. economists as indicated in section I above has typically been represented by the mainstream as nothing but. IS In terms of debating strategy this allows the mainstream to deploy the full arsenal from its theory of. commercial policy to undermine his recommendation However a more careful reading of his works suggests. that most of the mainstream attacks are misplaced and have obfuscated many key issues. III A An evolving conceptualization of IS with increasing cautions. IS industrialization was already being implemented in Latin America when Prebisch started to. provide theoretical justification for it in the late 1940s and 1950s Prebisch 1984 p 177 Given that it was. only since the Great Depression years that he started liberating himself from the neoclassical free trade. dogma it is understandable that his conceptualization of the IS strategy would take time to evolve. Thus one still finds him reasoning in classical terms at one point in his manifesto comparing. trade offs in procuring industrial products through domestic production versus through trade to. determine the theoretical limits of industrialization 1950a p 45 see also 1950b pp 37 9 Reasoning. in classical terms entails an assumption even if implicitly made of full employment but he did not hold. that for long About a decade later with the unemployed or ill employed in mind 8 he would contend. that a shifting of manpower from relatively unproductive activities agriculture for internal consumption. cottage industries and the vast range of personal services into industry and other more highly productive. activities at a rate commensurate with the growth of the active population represents a net increase in the. average per capita product for the economy as a whole 1961a p 14 To be sure given the technological. gap between the centers and peripheral countries such shifting of manpower would have to be induced by. some policy measures For instance in International Co operation he argues that protection is necessary. given the existing productivity differences between the center and periphery although here he does not. consider himself to be making an infant industry argument 9. Many in the economics mainstream are not aware that Prebisch was quite critical of the manner in. which IS was carried out and the problems that it had engendered especially in Latin America For those. within the mainstream or without who have paid attention it would seem that he became so beginning. from the late 1950s Thus according to his discussions since then many of these problems have their. roots in the haphazard origin of the strategy 1961a pp 4 5 14 1961b p 625 1962 p 32 1963 p 71. 1964 p 22 That in turn translated into situations where protection was carried to extremely high levels. 1959a p 265 1961a pp 2 3 1963 p 71 1971a p 214 1978 p 184 Competition was choked off. breeding inefficiencies and destroying incentives for productivity improvements 1959a p 259 1961a p. 16 1962 pp 33 4 1963 pp 46 7 71 92 1964 p 22 1968 pp 7 25 1971a p 193 It hurt the. agricultural sector 1961a pp 3 15 1963 pp 41 2 1971a pp 40 209 It also discouraged exports. both primary and manufactured 10 thereby enhancing the periphery s external vulnerability 1961a pp. 3 5 14 5 1962 pp 31 3 1963 pp 42 72 1964 pp 21 2 74 5 108 1971a p 210 11 However a. careful re examination of his works indicates that he was alert to many of these problems much earlier. For instance he warns in his manifesto that It is conceivable the precariousness of natural resources and. the inefficiency of workers or management might be such that the loss through increased costs from internal. production would absorb an excessively large part of the increase in real income gained through greater. employment The seriousness of this difficulty cannot be denied 1950a p 53 Then in Problems of. Economic Growth he draws attention to cases in which exaggerated emphasis has been placed on certain. domestic activities whilst disregarding the possible margin of profitable development in exports 1950b p. 21 italics added see also ibid pp 18 84 1951a p 84 1954 pp 10 72 73 12. The increasing seriousness of these problems throughout the 1950s had probably enabled. Prebisch to better understand their nature to sharpen his critique and to come up with recommendations. on how industrialization should proceed in the ensuing phase Indeed in his 1959 American Economic. Review AER article one finds him offering a more nuanced characterization of IS based on stages or. phases of progress Thus, The development process requires a continual change in the composition of imports These changes. usually start with the decline in the proportion of imports of light consumer goods in favor of imports. of basic material capital goods and durables At more advanced stages of industrialization when. import substitution of these light consumer goods has been nearly completed new changes relating. to the other categories of goods are necessary so that by reducing or eliminating imports of some of. them it is possible to increase imports responding to the needs of the development process p 264. Heading into the 1960s and early 1970s he repeatedly issued warnings that the initial stage of easy and simple. substitution had reached its limits in those countries where industrialization had proceeded the most 1963 p. 69 1964 p 21 1968 p 8 1971a p 46 13, However the move into the next stage was by no means spontaneous This is the one where imports. of intermediate products and capital goods should begin to be substituted That necessitates heavier. investments and the use of technologies that are more complex but neither exports nor foreign capital will. suffice to finance all the imports necessary for the accumulation of the vast stock of capital required 1959b. p 143 Prebisch fully understood in the context of Latin America in the late 1950s that the further IS should. proceed the greater will be the attendant difficulties if the process continues to develop within the twenty. watertight compartments represented by the individual country markets ibid Besides for those countries. that had more or less completed the first phase of IS. accentuated by adverse trade conditions they have compressed their import requirements to a series. of goods absolutely essential for the maintenance and growth of their economy and have lost the. margin for the further reduction in imports which they had when they imported consumer goods. Thus an unfavorable fluctuation in exports tends to have critical effects on economic development. far more so than when as in former times vulnerability was more on the demand side 1959a p. Consequently they had paradoxically become more externally vulnerable see also 1961a p 5 1963 pp. 69 70 1964 p 22 1978 p 226 14, Prebisch thus realized that a policy was needed to encourage these changes in composition in order. to accelerate the rate of economic growth so that imports are adapted to the need for greater technical. progress in primary production and for more intense industrial development 1959a p 265 And that. prompted him to put more emphasis on EP than before 15. III B Supporting EP though not abandoning IS, There are strong early indications that Prebisch was quite aware of the importance of expanding. exports to accelerating peripheral development He thus stresses as early as his manifesto that. The more active Latin America s foreign trade the greater the possibility of increasing productivity. by means of intensive capital formation The solution does not lie in growth at the expense of foreign. trade but in knowing how to extract from continually growing foreign trade the elements that will. promote economic development 1950a p 2, One should thus not forget he reminds the reader that the greater the exports from Latin America the.
greater may be the rate of its economic development ibid p 46 see also 1950b pp 8 60 81 16 Then in. his Problems of Economic Growth he clarifies that IS does not involve a concept of self sufficiency nor of. pursuing a systematic reduction of imports Instead it implies importing as much as exports and foreign. investments may allow T he possibility of increasing exports adequately must by no means be. overlooked 1950b p 8 italics added, An early instance when Prebisch considered the benefits of promoting manufactured exports can be. found in an interesting passage in the Economic Survey of LA There while discussing what Japan s. development experience might offer in terms of lessons to the periphery he observes that. Japan was able to assimilate modern technique rapidly but did not raise wages to the levels of the. great industrial countries Japan s incomes thus remained lower than those of other industrial. countries nevertheless through industrialization Japan was able to increase considerably per capita. productivity with an evident net increase in income which would probably not have been possible. without the expansion of exports 1951a p 77 italics added. Although he does not attach the explicit label he is probably referring to its manufactured exports however. relatively low tech they might be at that time, Though Prebisch was harboring that thought even in the early 1950s it was not until the late. 1950s that he started to more explicitly give it support 17 Thus referring to the external disequilibrium. problem on which more in section V below he considers in his 1959 AER article a situation where both. the center and periphery in a two region model are growing at the same rate but where the latter has a. higher income elasticity of demand for the former s products than vice versa He concludes that in the. periphery either the rate of increase of demand for imports would have to fall by means of import. substitution or industrial exports would have to be added to the primary ones or a combination of the. two 1959a p 254 italics added Reiterating this point a couple of years later in his article in the. Economic Bulletin for Latin America he proclaims that import substitution and the development of. industrial exports to the centres is a sine qua non for rectifying these differences of elasticity 1961a p 4. It is common knowledge he adds that the economic development of a peripheral country is very. closely linked to the course that its exports follow For the rate of growth of its exports sets a limit to. spontaneous economic development ibid p 2 see also 1963 p 7. Prebisch continued with this promotion effort in his capacity as the Secretary General for. UNCTAD Observing the size of the trade gaps typical for peripheral countries at that time he dismissed. as mere palliatives measures that sought to expand primary exports. Hence the absolute necessity of building up trade in industrial exports Exports of manufactures. ought to have been the natural complement of the industrialization of the peripheral economies. The development of industrial exports in addition to counteracting the potential trade gap will. make it possible gradually to increase the advantages of industrialization by correcting its defects. And for those peripheral countries that relied on food imports industrial exports could help pay for them. ibid p 55 see also 1968 p 20, After leaving UNCTAD and refocusing his attention on Latin America he harks back to the term. dynamism in Change and Development and remarks that. The process of IS bears within itself the seeds of its own loss of dynamism since industrial. development takes place within a closed circuit of costs and prices which because it has no contact. with the world market discourages exports of manufactures and these are really essential for. industry needs to stretch outward in order to develop inward in depth 1971a pp 193 4. A new type of development in Latin America he declares cannot be based solely on import substitution. but must entail a major effort to promote exports to the rest of the world and in particular intraregional. exports ibid p 48 see also pp 18 173 1976 pp 64 5 1985 pp 14 15 18. On this last point of promoting intraregional trade within Latin America Prebisch started. entertaining the idea since the early 1950s if not before for instance 1951a p 84 But in the late 1950s. with his deeper appreciation of the problems with IS and the need for the promotion of industrial exports this. began to crystallize into something more concrete Thus referring to the costliness of the substitution. process he argued that t he only basic solution is to break up the out dated mould where inter Latin. American trade was very slight by means of the gradual and progressive establishment of the common. market and the consequent diversification of imports and exports 1959b p 144 More generally for. peripheral countries i f the trend towards external disequilibrium is to be progressively eliminated this. excessive protection will have to be gradually dismantled starting with the liberalization of trade among. themselves 1968 p 25 In advocating a Latin American Common Market or South South trade in general. Prebisch understood that such efforts can help considerably to achieve more efficient production by. expanding markets encouraging specialization and facilitating competition and t he resulting reduction in. industrial costs will have an important bearing in the world export market 1961b p 627 see also. 1959a p 268, It must be stressed that at no point did Prebisch imply that EP should replace IS Rather the two. should be implemented in some combined ways He thus puts it very tersely in New Trade Policy that t he. stress laid on industrial exports does not mean that import substitution policy should be abandoned On the. contrary it should be maintained 1964 p 25 Later in the same work he elaborates that. There is no conflict between import substitution and export promotion Industries that begin by. catering to the domestic market may as they gain experience and efficiency branch out into export. markets p 76, The fact is that the development of the domestic market and the promotion of exports are not.
two alternative or mutually exclusive propositions The two processes must take place. simultaneously and in a co ordinated manner p 115 19. The important feature to remember he adds is that IS should be implemented within groupings of. countries that should be resolutely founded on regional and subregional integration of basic industries. when it comes to capital and intermediate goods 1964 p 123 1971a pp 106 236. Intraregional trade including trade in certain capital and intermediate goods within a region aside. what did Prebisch envisage the emerging trade pattern between the center and periphery to be like It might at. first appear that he was talking here in terms of static comparative advantage Thus at one point in the early. 1960s he wrote, The greater our traditional exports and the exports of industrial goods in which we have. comparative advantages the larger will be our own imports of other industrial goods whose. production in Latin American countries would still be relatively costly in relation to the levels. prevailing in the more advanced industrial centers 1962 p 37. Trade would then be conducted on a basis of reciprocal benefits 1963 p 73 see also 1964 p 25 But. there is more as the following subsection will illustrate. III C Increasing technological densities in underdeveloped countries. The term technological density is not one that Prebisch employed too often in his works at least. not explicitly Partly as a consequence its content can benefit from further clarification and refinement. Nevertheless when one takes heed of how he conceptualized it on the occasions that he used it then one. realizes that the concept actually permeates many important areas of his works and has quite an important. role to play 20, Recall that Prebisch was deeply concerned with the uneven development that to him was based on. the uneven technological progress between the center and the periphery In his 1959 AER article he alludes. again to the uneven form in which technical progress has spread into the world economy He laments. that that has brought very great disparities in technological densities That is to say the amount of. technological knowledge as well as the real aptitude for using it in production 1959a p 261. But Prebisch showed awareness of the significance of this consideration much earlier In his. manifesto he thus suggests that The raising of the standard of living of the masses ultimately depends on. the existence of a considerable amount of capital per man employed in industry transport and primary. production and on the ability to use it well 1950a p 5 italics added Then in the Economic Survey of LA. he elaborates that, The assimilation of modern productive technique with its increasing complexity was not. spontaneous but deliberate and required considerable effort and persistence This is all of great.

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