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Chapter 2 ASEAN Foreign Trade Investment and Integration
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Figure 2 1 Share of ASEAN s Exports plus Imports to Gross Domestic Product. Source World Bank Dataset Exports of goods and services of GDP and Imports of goods. and services of GDP http databank worldbank org, Table 2 1 Foreign Direct Investment as a Share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation. , ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN 3 ASEAN plus China Japan and the Republic of Korea EU25 . European Union 25 LAIA Latin American Integration Association Mercosur Southern Common Market NAFTA North. American Free Trade Agreement SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SADC Southern African. Development Community , Source UNCTAD Stat Dataset Foreign direct investment as percentage of gross fixed capital formation . http unctadstat unctad org, 14 ASEAN 50 Volume 3 ASEAN and Member States Transformation and Integration. ASEAN has been successful in attracting foreign direct investment FDI indeed it has. competed with China as the largest FDI investment destination in the developing world. in recent years Thus for example ASEAN accounted for 6 of total FDI inflows in 2015. even though it only accounted for 3 3 of global GDP Table 2 1 shows the ratio of FDI. inflows to gross capital formation for ASEAN and other regional economic groupings. from the 1970s As the table indicates FDI has played a more important role in the. region s capital formation since the 1980s compared to Mercosur Southern Common. Market North American Free Trade Agreement NAFTA South Asian Association for. Regional Cooperation SAARC and for much of the period the European Union EU . In terms of the ratio of FDI to GDP since the 1970s most of the AMSs have had ratios. that are higher than the average for all developing economies Singapore stands out for. having a large FDI presence vis vis national output since the 1970s while Cambodia. is noteworthy for having the second highest among the AMSs second to Singapore . during the past decade , The liberalisation process of facilitating deeper trade and investment linkages between.
ASEAN and the world has transpired in the region especially since the mid 1980s . Thus for example there have been large declines in most favoured nation MFN tariff. rates of all manufactured goods ores and metals from the late 1980s to the mid 2010s. in countries such as Indonesia the Philippines and Thailand and to a less extent the. historically less trade restrictive Malaysia This is in addition to the historically virtually. low to zero MFN tariff rate economies of Brunei Darussalam and Singapore This is. indicative of the adoption of trade liberalisation policies in ASEAN in recent decades. see Table 2 2 The MFN tariffs for Cambodia the Lao PDR Myanmar Viet Nam or. CLMV countries have also declined during the past 2 decades albeit more moderately . Considering that intra ASEAN tariff rates declined to virtually zero for 2010 in the. ASEAN 6 countries and to nearly zero in most imports for the CLMV countries going. into the 2018 deadline the weighted averages of the MFN and the intra ASEAN tariff. rates have indeed declined dramatically during the past 2 3 decades . Chapter 2 ASEAN Foreign Trade Investment and Integration in Comparative Perspective 15. Table 2 1 Foreign Direct Investment as a Share of Gross Fixed Capital Formation. , a Indonesia 2013 b Malaysia 1988 c Myanmar 2015 d Philippines 2013 e Thailand 1995 . Source http unctadstat unctad org wds TableViewer tableView aspx ReportId 122. Figure 2 2 KOF Index of Economic Globalization weighted by GDP 1990 2013. ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations EU European Union NAFTA North American Free Trade Agreement . Source Author s calculations based on 2016 KOF Index of Globalization . 16 ASEAN 50 Volume 3 ASEAN and Member States Transformation and Integration. A measure of the extent of ASEAN s economic openness and economic integration is. the Konjunkturforschungsstelle Index of Globalization KOF Index calculated based. on a country s performance in international trade and investment foreign payments . and measures on trade barriers including tariff non tariff barriers tax and capital. restrictions 2 The annual report published by ETH Zurich is based on country level data . we use the GDP weighted average of member states scores as a proxy for the region s. overall level of economic globalisation for ASEAN Mercosur the EU and NAFTA . Figure 2 2 presents the pattern of economic globalisation in ASEAN the EU NAFTA . and Mercosur since 1970 using the KOF Index of Economic Globalization ASEAN s. economic globalisation increased gradually from 1970 to 1986 accelerated in 1986 . 1998 to about 65 and then fluctuated before reaching 68 in 2013 Figure 2 2 shows. that ASEAN s level of globalisation accelerated during the 1990s but stagnated from the. late 2000s along with the EU NAFTA and Mercosur , The acceleration of globalisation globally in the 1990s coincided with the establishment. of major regional integration areas the EU NAFTA and ASEAN together with the. conclusion and implementation of the Uruguay Round under the General Agreement. on Tariffs and Trade World Trade Organization The pullback from globalisation since. the late 2000s was an after effect of the Great Recession from the 2008 2009 global. financial crisis as well as what seems to be the maturation of the global value chain . which meant lower global trade growth relative to global GDP growth Pangestu and. Armstrong 2016 This indicates that ASEAN s performance has been shaped by global. trends also which is what can be expected in a relatively open economy Nonetheless . Figure 2 2 shows that ASEAN has been much more globalised than Mercosur and even. NAFTA and almost as globalised as the EU , The significant differences in the extent of globalisation among the AMSs are worth. noting As expected Singapore has been the most globalised among the AMSs followed. by Malaysia Thailand and Brunei come next at almost the same level of globalisation . followed by nearly identical scores for Indonesia and the Philippines Cambodia and Viet. Nam follow next with almost the same scores while Myanmar and the Lao PDR bring up. the rear The degree of globalisation accelerated during the 1990s for the five ASEAN. founding members while that of Cambodia and Viet Nam occurred during the past 1 2. decades see Table 2 3 , 2, The KOF Index of Globalization is a composite index of economic globalisation political globalisation and social. globalisation first introduced by Dreher 2006 It conceptualises globalisation as a process of producing improving. mutual interdependence among countries via the integration of their national economies cultures technologies and. governance Higher values of the index denote greater globalisation and vice versa . Chapter 2 ASEAN Foreign Trade Investment and Integration in Comparative Perspective 17. Figure 2 2 and Table 2 3 suggest that ASEAN is a product of both globalisation and. regional integration a reflection of the open regionalism that ASEAN followed in its. regional integration efforts under the ASEAN Free Trade Agreement AFTA and. towards the ASEAN Economic Community AEC Indeed Peter Drysdale in his. essay in Volume 5 of the ASEAN 50 publication Drysdale 2017 emphasises that. ASEAN is an experiment in open regionalism that has succeeded At the same time the. highly varied scoring in globalisation in Table 2 3 suggests that there remain significant. challenges to as well as opportunities from deeper economic integration of Member. States within ASEAN within East Asia and with the rest of the world Such challenges. and opportunities from deeper economic linkages regionally and globally especially with. respect to foreign trade and investment are discussed further in the next sections . Table 2 3 Economic Globalisation Scores for ASEAN Member States. Source 2016 KOF Index of Globalization , 18 ASEAN 50 Volume 3 ASEAN and Member States Transformation and Integration.
Deepening Intra ASEAN and Intra East Asian Trade, Intra ASEAN trade deepened during the 1990s and 2000s Intra ASEAN trade now. comprises a quarter of total trade of ASEAN countries compared to about a fifth in the. early 1990s and about 18 6 in the 1980s see Table 2 4 The share of intra ASEAN. merchandise trade is much higher than trade within Mercosur or SAARC among the. developing economy regional integration associations although still significantly lower. than NAFTA and the EU It must be emphasised however that the comparatively lower. intra regional trade share in ASEAN than in NAFTA and the EU does not indicate the. failure of ASEAN s regional integration efforts , Instead it means that the robust growth of intra ASEAN merchandise trade has been. accompanied by equally robust growth with trade with non ASEAN trade partners . most importantly with China Japan the Republic of Korea henceforth Korea and. increasingly India This reflects the pursuit of open regionalism in ASEAN which. essentially means trade discriminatory policies in favour of intra ASEAN have been. minimised thereby effectively allowing the full play of comparative advantage in. ASEAN It also reflects the growth of regional production networks since the late 1980s. in East Asia with China as the hub Indeed a large share of intra ASEAN trade is in parts. and components that are exported also as intermediate products to the rest of East Asia. and the world Hence the robustness of trade within ASEAN involves also robustness of. trade with non ASEAN countries especially China , Table 2 4 Intra Regional Trade Shares Merchandise Trade 1980 2014. , ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations EU European Union Mercosur Southern Common Market NAFTA North. American Free Trade Agreement RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership SAARC South Asian Association for. Regional Cooperation , Source Authors calculations based on data from the United Nations COMTRADE database .
Chapter 2 ASEAN Foreign Trade Investment and Integration in Comparative Perspective 19. The pursuit of open regionalism in ASEAN and the growth of regional production. networks in East Asia has led to interesting shifts in international trade consistent with. the changes in comparative advantage in the increasingly integrating region Specifically . the 1990s and 2000s saw shifts in comparative advantage in East Asia arising from fast . rising wages coupled by currency appreciations in Japan Korea and Taiwan that led to. a flood of direct investment from the three economies Hong Kong and other parts of. the world into export oriented labour intensive manufactures to the ASEAN region and. China The surge of such FDI into ASEAN integrated the region into the growing regional. production networks in East Asia At the same time the surge of investments and. concomitant rises in wages led to the changes in the revealed comparative advantage. of several AMSs during the past 3 decades Thus countries that became export. competitive in skilled labour intensive manufactures such as electronics and electrical. equipment Malaysia the Philippines and Thailand became less competitive in low . skilled labour intensive industries such as garments This thereby allowed the low wage. AMSs like Cambodia and Viet Nam to become significant exporters of such products as. garments It is precisely these dynamic shifts in comparative advantage facilitated by. trade and investment among countries in the region with substantially varying levels of. development and wages that characterise the industrialisation and integration process in. ASEAN and East Asia in the past 3 decades , The dictates of comparative advantage the opportunities from global and regional trade. liberalisation and the dynamics of regional production networks under open regionalism. mean that the rise in the aggregate share of intra ASEAN trade hides interesting. country level developments in the direction of trade see Table 2 5 Cambodia the Lao. PDR and Malaysia markedly reduced their reliance on the ASEAN region as an export. market while at the same time expanding substantially their import sourcing on ASEAN . On the other hand five ASEAN countries Indonesia Myanmar the Philippines . Singapore and Thailand increased their reliance on the ASEAN region both as an. export market and as an import source most notably Indonesia and the Philippines . Brunei and Viet Nam marginally reduced their export exposure to ASEAN in tandem. with a marginal increase in import sourcing from the region Brunei or a marginal decline. in imports from ASEAN Viet Nam , Thus for example Cambodia dramatically shifted its exports away from the ASEAN. region towards the EU and the United States US while at the same time increasing. further its reliance on ASEAN and ASEAN 3 and away from the EU as a source of. imports During the period Cambodia had the sharpest rise in the trade to GDP ratio. among the AMSs It effectively leveraged its low labour cost with imported inputs from. the ASEAN 3 region to generate exports mainly of garments primarily to the West . This smart utilisation of the principle of comparative advantage must have been a big. 20 ASEAN 50 Volume 3 ASEAN and Member States Transformation and Integration. factor for Cambodia s growth performance which was the best in the ASEAN region in. the 2000s , Similarly the Philippines hitherto the least engaged in trade among the AMSs in the. early 1990s turned dramatically to the ASEAN and Eas. ASEAN Foreign Trade Investment and Integration in Comparative Perspective ASEAN Economic Openness and Globalisation Most ASEAN Member States AMSs have been heavily trade oriented especially since the mid 1980s Figure 2 1 Being small countries Brunei Darussalam and Singapore

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