Approval of the Graduate School of Natural and Applied Sciences . Prof Dr Canan O zgen, Director, I certify that this thesis satisfies all the requirements as a thesis for the degree of. Master of Science , Prof Dr C ag lar Gu ven, Head of Department. This is to certify that we have read this thesis and that in our opinion it is fully. adequate in scope and quality as a thesis for the degree of Master of Science . Prof Dr O mer K rca, Supervisor,Examining Committee Members. Prof Dr Sinan Kayal gil,Prof Dr O mer K rca,Assoc Prof Dr Levent Kandiller. Assoc Prof Dr Mustafa Ko ksal,Asst Prof Dr Sedef Meral. ABSTRACT, A GENERAL PRODUCTION AND FINANCIAL PLANNING MODEL FOR. INTEGRATED POULTRY ORGANIZATIONS, Sat r Benhu r, M S Department of Industrial Engineering. Supervisor Prof Dr O mer K rca, December 2003 96 pages. For the last two decades demand for poultry meat has been soared since it is. healthier and less costly than its substitutes In order to meet this increasing de . mand integrated poultry organizations have been established all over the world . Usually an integrated poultry organization has the divisions of breeder coops . incubation house broiler coops feed mill slaughterhouse and marketing This. complex structure makes production planning activities more difficult for inte . grated poultry organizations The aim of this study is to propose a production. and financial planning model for O nder Integrated Poultry Incorporation using. mathematical modelling techniques and statistical methods . Keywords Integrated Poultry Organization Production Planning Statistics . Mathematical Modelling, iii, O Z, ENTEGRE TAVUK ORGANI ZASYONLARI I C I N GENEL U RETI M VE. FI NANSAL PLANLAMA MODELI , Sat r Benhu r, Yu ksek Lisans Endu stri Mu hendislig i Bo lu mu . Tez Yo neticisi Prof Dr O mer K rca, Aral k 2003 96 sayfa. Son yirmi sene ic erisinde tavuk etinin daha sag l kl ve ika melerinden daha ucuz. olmas dolay s ile talebi artm s t r Artan talebi kars lamak amac ile bu tu n. du nya u zerinde entegre tavuk organizasyonlar kurulmus tur Al s lagelmis bir. entegre tavuk organizasyonunda dam zl k ku mesleri kuluc kaha ne pilic u retim. ku mesleri yem fabrikas kesimha ne ve pazarlama bo lu mleri bulunmaktad r Bu. karmas k yap entegre tavuk organizasyonlar ndaki u retim planlama faaliyetlerini. zorlas t rmaktad r Bu c al s man n amac O nder Entegre Tavukc uluk A S ic in . matematiksel modelleme teknikleri ve istatistik yo ntemleri kullanarak bir u retim. ve finansal planlama modelinin o nerilmesidir , Anahtar Kelimeler Entegre Tavuk Organizasyonu U retim Planlama I statistik . Matematiksel Modelleme, iv, To My Mother Father And Wife. And, In Memory Of C ag r , v, ACKNOWLEDGMENTS, The major part of my thanks goes to my supervisor Prof Dr O mer K rca His. subtle ideas and approaches to the problems that I encountered during the study. have always guided me in the correct manner , I am thankful to my chairman Prof Dr Fetih Y ld r m for his tolerance and. support to my graduate studies He always shed light on my academic career and. my life as well , I deem myself as fortunate having parents who have never given up their special. support throughout my life without examining my rightness I present my deepest. thanks to my mother and father Mu kerrem and I smail Sat r Special thanks go. to my brother Dr I O zgu r Sat r for his advices about my life especially for my. occupation , Love of my wife Ferda have given me strength and confidence ever since we met . She is a very special person for me Very special thanks go to her . I owe special thanks to Assoc Prof Bu lent Pekertan General Manager of O nder. Integrated Poultry Incorporation for his help and tolerance through the study . I present my esteem to Prof Dr M Oktay Aln ak for guidance and assistance. to the decisions about my life especially the decision of being an academician . Thanks to M Koray Perko z for his brilliant personality and his brotherhood He. originated the idea of the subject of the thesis , I thank to my friends Mehmet Umutlu and M Ata Bodur with whom I have. shared my three years in the same home for their support to my study Thanks. to everyone I could not mention here , vi, TABLE OF CONTENTS. ABSTRACT iii,O Z iv,DEDICATON v,ACKNOWLEDGMENTS vi. TABLE OF CONTENTS vii,LIST OF TABLES ix,LIST OF FIGURES x. CHAPTER, 1 INTRODUCTION 1, 2 PROBLEM ANALYSIS 5, 2 1 Introduction 5. 2 2 General Information About The Organization 6, 2 3 Characteristics Of The Problem 6. 2 4 Literature Review 9, 2 5 Proposed Solution Methodology 14. 3 DEMAND ANALYSIS 16, 3 1 Analysis Of Demand Characteristics 16. 3 2 Forecasting 19, 3 3 Demand Scenarios 23, 3 4 Disaggregation of Scenarios 25. 4 GENERAL PRODUCTION AND FINANCIAL PLANNING 27, 4 1 Introduction 27. 4 2 The Model 30, vii, 4 2 1 Sets 30, 4 2 2 Decision Variables 30. 4 2 3 Parameters 32, 4 3 Mathematical Formulation 37. 4 3 1 Breeders 37, 4 3 2 Incubation House 38, 4 3 3 Coops 39. 4 3 4 Slaughterhouse 41, 4 3 5 Feed Mill 42, 4 3 6 Expenses 43. 4 3 7 Revenues 44, 4 3 8 Objective Function 45, 4 4 Results 45. 5 CONCLUSIONS 55,REFERENCES 60,APPENDICES 62, A Results Of The Experiment Of Part Weights For Chicken Carcass 62. B Total Production Requirements and Sales Graph 63. C Time Series Methodology for Demand Forecasting 64. D Analysis and Statistics of Production Requirements Series Fore . casting 68, E Normality Tests and Generated Series for Random Requirements. Scenario 76, F Graphs of Scenarios 79, G Appendices of General Production and Financial Planning Problem 81. viii, LIST OF TABLES, 1 1 Poultry Meat and Total Meat Production in World and Turkey 2. 1 2 Chicken Stocks in World and Turkey 2, 3 1 Summary of Test Results for the Selected ARIMA Models for Pro . duction Requirements 22, 3 2 System behavior according to sales patterns 23. 4 1 Egg Production Results Summary 48, 4 2 Total Chick Data of Realization and Scenarios 49. E 1 Randomly Generated Series for 18 Months Horizon Under Normal . ity Assumption 77, G 1 Parameter Values of General Production and Financial Planning. Problem 81, G 2 Capacities Performance Measures and Availability Matrix of a. Sample from Coops 84, G 3 Model Statistics of General Production and Financial Planning. Problem According to Requirement Scenarios 85, G 4 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 1 86, G 5 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 2 87, G 6 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 3 88, G 7 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 4 89, G 8 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 5 90, G 9 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 6 91, G 10 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 7 92, G 11 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 8 93, G 12 Model Results of General Production and Financial Planning Prob . lem for Actual Requirements Scenario Part 9 94, ix. LIST OF FIGURES,2 1 Chicken Meat Parts and Their Names 6. 2 2 General Integration System of O nder Integrated Poultry Incorpo . ration 7, A 1 Part Weights and Percentages of Chicken Carcass 62. B 1 The Organization s Total Production Requirements According to. Past Sales and Total Past Sales 63,D 1 Production Requirements Series 68. D 2 Production Requirements Series Correlation and Partial Correla . tion Charts 69, D 3 Production Requirements Series Augmented Dickey Fuller Test. Results 69, D 4 Production Requirements Series First Differences Correlation and. Partial Correlation Charts 70, D 5 Production Requirements Series First Differences Augmented Dickey . Fuller Test Results 70, D 6 Estimation of Production Requirements Series Using ARIMA 0 1 0 . Process 71, D 7 Estimation of Production Requirements Series Using ARIMA 1 1 0 . Process 71, D 8 Estimation of Production Requirements Series Using ARIMA 2 1 0 . Process 72, D 9 Estimation of Production Requirements Series Using ARIMA 3 1 0 . Process 72, D 10 Production Requirements Series Residuals Quantile Quantile Plot. for Normal Distribution 73, D 11 Production Requirements Series Residuals Statistics 73. D 12 Actual Fitted and Residual Values of Production Requirements. Series Using ARIMA 2 1 0 74, D 13 Forecasted Values and 2 Limits of Forecasts of Production Re . quirements Series for 18 Months 74, D 14 Anderson Darling Normality Test Results of Production Require . ments Series Residuals 75, D 15 Kolmogrov Smirnov Normality Test Results of Production Require . ments Series Residuals 75, x, E 1 Anderson Darling Normality Test Results of Production Require . ments Series for the Years 2000 2001 76, E 2 Kolmogrov Smirnov Normality Test Results of Production Require . ments Series for the Years 2000 2001 78, F 1 Monthly Actual Requirements versus Weekly Disaggregated Re . quirements for Actual Requirements Scenario 79, F 2 Weekly Requirements of Randomly Generated Series Graph Under. Normality Assumption for Random Requirements Scenario 80. F 3 Weekly Requirements of Actual Past Constant Trend and Sea . sonal Requirements Scenarios 80, G 1 Chick Entrance Comparison of Random Scenarios Results with. Realized Entrances 95, G 2 Chick Entrance Comparison of Actual Constant Trend and Sea . sonal Scenarios Results with Realized Entrances 95. G 3 Comparison of Actual Requirement Scenario s Chick Entrances. with Modified Versions 96, xi, CHAPTER 1, INTRODUCTION. Demand of poultry meat such as chicken meat and turkey meat has been in . creased for the last two decades all over the world since it is healthier and less. costly than its substitutes such as red meat fish meat buffalo meat etc Har . vey and Ritson 1997 gives the relationship between real income and poultry. meat consumption as The real income growth during this period 1970 80 en . couraged greater meat consumption in the diet much of this growth was in. the white meats poultry pork and young beef for the situation in European. Union Boyar 1997 analyzes the trend in poultry meat consumption for the. period of 1979 1994 In those years there exist a sharp increase in the percent . age of poultry meat in total production In Table 1 1 FAO statistics of chicken. meat production in terms of percentage can be seen to be increasing both for. the world and Turkey for the period 1999 2002 In Table 1 2 FAO statistics of. the chicken stocks can be seen to show a positive trend for the same period as. expected from the production figures , Initially demand for poultry meat had been supplied by farmers but with the. increasing trend of demand slaughterhouses had been established Following. this first industrialization step better feed rations and feed production methods . better races that give more meat in return of consumed feed by chickens better. utilization rates for incubation were sought by the firms for being more compet . 1, Table 1 1 Poultry Meat and Total Meat Production in World and Turkey. WORLD S PRODN 1999 2000 2001 2002, Beef and Buffalo Meat 59 320 592 59 874 844 59 277 761 60 977 877. Sheep and Goat Meat 10 937 638 11 339 947 11 458 072 11 548 850. Chicken Meat 55 960 358 58 699 207 60 882 844 63 400 358. Total Meat 229 844 106 233 660 923 237 525 719 245 046 734. of Chicken on Total 24 35 25 12 25 63 25 87,TURKEY S PRODN 1999 2000 2001 2002. Beef and Buffalo Meat 354 877 358 683 333 884 352 100. Sheep and Goat Meat 368 000 374 000 351 000 332 500. Chicken Meat 596 854 643 436 614 726 612 000, Total Meat 1 340 941 1 396 726 1 319 140 1 314 084. of Chicken on Total 44 51 46 07 46 60 46 57, In Metric Tonnes . Reference FAO 2003 , Table 1 2 Chicken Stocks in World and Turkey. 1999 2000 2001 2002, WORLD S STOCKS 13 861 801 14 731 162 15 301 674 15 853 857. TURKEY S STOCKS 236 997 239 748 258 168 217 575, In thousands . Reference FAO 2003 , 2, itive in this new market Poultry slaughterhouses became Integrated Poultry. Organizations by including new divisions to them such as feed mill breeder. coops incubation house broiler coops and marketing department to achieve. the aims of competitiveness mentioned above All divisions have close relations. among them in terms of information material and cash flows This makes the. structure of integrated poultry organizations more complex Boyar 1997 gives. minimum number of chickens to be processed in order to be called as integrated. poultry organization as 2 5 million chickens per year . For an integrated poultry organization forming a general production and finan . cial plan is a very complex structured problem The term general production and. financial plan refers to a set of decisions for possible future business activities. and cash flows such as buying breeders chick entrances to coops raw material. purchases for feed mill etc Strategic decisions require very long horizons and. they are discarded from the scope of the study But in terms of constraints such. decisions such as building new breeder houses capacity expansion decision of. slaughterhouse etc are analyzed in the sensitivity analysis part of the study . Breeders are the key elements of production In general a breeder starts giving. eggs which become broiler chicks after incubation at the age of 24 weeks It. continues laying eggs until the age of 70 weeks So a new bought breeder chick. has a life of 70 weeks which should be considered in the planning activities of the. integrated poultry organization Forecasting demand capacities of production . and expected market prices become problematic for such a long horizon With the. complex structure of integrated poultry organizations these factors make general. planning activities very hard , Roughly speaking O nder Integrated Poultry Incorporation supplies 15 000 tonnes. of chicken meat to the market yearly and a kilogram of chicken meat is about 2 . This gives an expected annual revenue of 30 million Any improvement in terms. of efficiency on the production system brings significant benefits Besides this . the poultry industry is a highly competitive industry and all the organizations in. 3, the industry are continuously seeking ways of cost reduction in their processes 1. The aim of this study is to propose a mathematical model for the purpose of pro . duction and financial planning that covers all the divisions of O nder Integrated. Poultry Incorporation which can be generalized and applied for any other inte . grated poultry organization Unfortunately because of competition reasons the. organization permitted the author to use the data for the years 2000 and 2001 . The study is expected to be applied in the organization with fresh data In this. study only the backbone of a general planning model is drawn with this old data . The thesis is organized as follows After this introductory chapter the next chap . ter focuses on the analysis of the problem and give general information about. O nder Integrated Poultry Incorporation and its current system Also literature. review is given in this chapter Chapter 3 is about the analysis of the organi . zation s demand structure This analysis is the base of the mathematical model. which is explained in Chapter 4 Lastly conclusions are presented in Chapter 5 . 1, An example of cost reduction using mathematical modelling approach is given in Taube . Netto 1996 for a specific integrated poultry organization .
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